On Tuesday (December 16), during the Asian trading session, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 98.30, while spot gold traded near $4,300 per ounce. Investors are bracing for the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report and retail sales data, which are expected to trigger significant market movements.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the combined October-November Nonfarm Payrolls report at 21:30 Beijing time. Economists forecast a 40,000 increase in seasonally adjusted employment, down from the previous 119,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.4%. Due to the government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the data collection process faced disruptions, prompting the Labor Department to merge the two months' figures instead of releasing them separately.
Marvin Loh, Senior Global Macro Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, noted that if the jobs data turns negative, discussions about a potential recession and Fed rate cuts could intensify. Derek Halpenny, an analyst at MUFG Bank, added that weak employment figures might further pressure the U.S. dollar amid year-end selling.
At the same time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release October retail sales data, with expectations of a 0.2% monthly increase, matching September's growth. Known as the "Terror Data" for its market-moving potential, this report could impact the dollar and gold.
Kshitij Consultancy Service provided insights on key assets: - **Gold**: A sustained break above $4,400 is needed to target $4,450–$4,500. Today’s jobs and retail data will be critical. - **Dollar Index**: Short-term support at 97.50–97.00, with a medium-term rebound toward 100.50 possible. - **EUR/USD**: Testing resistance near 1.18 before a potential pullback. - **EUR/JPY**: Slipping below 182, with further downside possible toward 180–182. The 184 target remains valid above 180. - **USD/JPY**: Consolidating in the 158–154 range, with support at 153–154 key. - **USD/CNY**: Hit the 7.045 target and may slide further to 7.025–7.00 without a rebound. - **AUD/USD**: Range-bound at 0.66–0.67; a breakout is needed for direction. - **GBP/USD**: Must hold above 1.3350–1.3360 and break 1.34 to target 1.35.
(Charts sourced from Kshitij)