Overconfidence Costs Market Share: Is New Stone Feeling the Heat?

Deep News
11/11

The rivalry between industry leaders always makes for compelling drama. Dubbed the "Year of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles," 2025 has seen capital and orders propel top players into the spotlight. Leading firms have raised approximately ¥8.6 billion in cumulative funding, with New Stone, White Rhino, and Jushi Intelligence securing substantial investments.

Recently, New Stone set an industry record with a ¥4.3 billion Series D funding round but suffered a setback by losing China Post’s 7,000-unit autonomous vehicle tender. Meanwhile, rival Jushi Intelligence clinched the deal and claims over 70% market share. In a late-September interview at Jushi’s Zigong factory, CEO Kong Qi confidently stated, "Jushi isn’t anxious—our market share is nearing 75%." With major funding yet losing a "lighthouse client," New Stone may now face mounting pressure.

**Jushi’s Lightning Ascent** Jushi’s rise has been meteoric. Co-founder Zhuang Li, formerly a JD.com (JD-SW) employee in North America, founded the company in 2021 after a layoff and achieved mass production of its first autonomous vehicle within six months. Just as Jushi entered unicorn status ahead of its IPO in July, reports surfaced that JD.com had filed an intellectual property infringement complaint in November 2024. Insiders, however, revealed the case was never formally pursued, attributing it to competitive smear tactics.

Jushi responded with results: by early September 2025, it had delivered over 10,000 vehicles across logistics, retail, and healthcare sectors. Kong Qi emphasized that unlike New Stone’s "10,000 units produced," Jushi’s vehicles are "10,000 units actually delivered and operational." In logistics alone, Jushi dominates with ~4,000 of the sector’s 5,000 units, nearing 75% market share.

**Business Model Innovation** Jushi ditched traditional outright vehicle sales for an "AI driver" service model with pay-as-you-go pricing. Kong explained this shares risk with SMEs: "Clients pay for autonomous mobility, not hardware." For example, costs dropped from ¥220,000 for a 5-year purchase to installment plans starting at ¥19,800, reflecting supply chain efficiencies and long-term service focus.

With self-built factories in Jiaxing and Zigong, plus partnerships with GEELY AUTO (GEELY AUTO) and XCMG, Jushi boosted annual capacity to 45,000–50,000 units and plans 500 service stations nationwide. Unfazed by the JD.com controversy, Jushi secured a $100 million Series B4 round led by Ant Group in October 2025, alongside winning China Post’s 7,000-unit leasing deal—solidifying its lead. "We let our products and services speak," Kong asserted.

**New Stone’s Stumble** While Jushi surged, New Stone faltered. It lost the China Post bid entirely, with partner DiDi Truck listed only as a backup, while Jushi and China Post-affiliated Zhongyou Tech took the lion’s share. The four-year, nationwide contract was a critical miss for New Stone.

The loss wasn’t incidental. As price wars intensify, Jushi’s cost-cutting and service-driven model pressured New Stone, whose founder Yu Enyuan opposes price wars in favor of "healthy ecosystems." Yet this "long-term play" appears reactive against aggressive rivals.

New Stone is pivoting to small-business (SMB) clients, targeting 70–80% SMB orders by 2026. While diversifying risk, this shift may dilute focus on key accounts (KAs) like China Post. The tender’s "one-primary, two-backup" mechanism demanded rapid deployment—a challenge for New Stone against Zhongyou’s state-backed resources or Jushi’s agility.

**Clashing Strategies** The top two players are now invading each other’s turf: Jushi’s "mobility service" scales rapidly, while New Stone bets on SMB differentiation. Kong’s "scale-first" approach contrasts with Yu’s "SMB resilience." Ironically, Kong argues scale drives cost efficiency: "We design vehicles to last 20 years—lower depreciation means higher service value." This frames Jushi as the true "long-term" player.

The question for Yu: Can his SMB focus withstand capital expectations and market squeeze?

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