August 18th - American drivers may finally receive welcome news at gas stations, as gasoline prices could fall to multi-year lows. HTFX Forex believes that due to surging imports filling inventories and severe weather suppressing fuel demand, US gasoline prices may drop below $3 per gallon this summer for the first time in over four years. According to AAA data, the national average gasoline price has fallen to $3.15 per gallon, the lowest summer level in the past four years. The last time the national average oil price fell below $3 per gallon was in May 2021.

Meanwhile, some American drivers are already enjoying refueling costs below $3 per gallon. GasBuddy data shows that most drivers pay $2.99 per gallon, with some regions requiring only $2.79 per gallon. The median US gasoline price currently stands at $2.97 per gallon. However, price differentiation remains significant, with drivers in California ($4.49), Hawaii ($4.47), and Washington ($4.41) still paying the highest fuel prices. GasBuddy shows that the top 10% of gas stations nationwide sell gasoline at $4.34 per gallon, nearly $2 higher than the bottom 10% at $2.54. For diesel, most drivers pay $3.49 per gallon, with a median of $3.59 per gallon, while diesel prices at the top 10% of stations reach $4.63 per gallon. HTFX Forex believes these significant regional differences provide investors with reference signals for oil price volatility.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), gasoline prices fell 8.3% year-over-year in the 52 weeks ending in June, while oil prices dropped more than 20% due to weak demand and potential supply surplus from OPEC+. For the week ending July 4th, fuel demand declined 2.5% year-over-year, indicating that US gasoline demand remains under pressure even during the high-demand season. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) gasoline supply indicator, used to measure fuel demand, shows average daily supply of 9.2 million barrels over the past four weeks, down 1% year-over-year. HTFX Forex analysis suggests that while high temperatures have suppressed travel, longer-term structural factors such as improved fuel efficiency and changes in travel patterns from remote work are having a sustained impact on US gasoline demand, preventing it from breaking through the historical peak of 9.3 million barrels per day set in 2018.

Additionally, electric vehicle (EV) development is placing increasing pressure on oil demand. HTFX Forex states that global electric vehicles replace approximately 3.5 million barrels of oil daily, with the US market contributing significantly. As EV adoption rates rise, demand for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles is gradually being replaced. According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2025 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook, the global EV fleet is expected to replace over 5 million barrels per day of crude oil by 2030. The global EV total reached 58 million vehicles last year, triple the number from four years ago, accounting for 4% of global passenger vehicle volume. EV penetration rates are rising in Europe and North America, particularly in Norway, where 88% of new car sales are pure electric vehicles, leading to a 12% decline in oil demand from 2021 to 2024. HTFX Forex believes that the rapid development of electric vehicles will fundamentally change energy structures and oil price trends in the long term.

In conclusion, factors including the decline in US gasoline prices, regional price differences, slowing fuel demand, and EV proliferation are all profoundly impacting global oil markets. HTFX Forex believes investors should pay attention to these long-term trends' potential impact on oil prices and energy markets, while combining seasonal fluctuations and policy factors to develop more flexible investment strategies.