Recent industry developments show that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Google, and Samsung have all released signals of capacity expansion and increased capital expenditure. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has committed an additional $100 billion to investments in the U.S. and raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to between $60 billion and $64 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 51.6% at the midpoint. Alphabet, Google's parent company, has raised its AI capital expenditure forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion, with a clear plan to continue expansion through 2027. Samsung is also evaluating the possibility of doubling the initial scale of its Taylor plant. A report from SEMI indicates that the global equipment boom cycle has been extended to 2028.
In related news, Nvidia has prepaid $1.5 billion to Amkor to support the expansion of its advanced packaging capacity in the United States. Amkor's advanced packaging campus in Arizona represents a total investment of $7 billion, is expected to begin production in 2028, and already forms an integrated supply chain with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's Arizona wafer fab. Demand for packaging equipment, such as advanced packaging lithography, bonding, and testing tools, will subsequently grow. AI chips depend not only on wafer manufacturing; packaging technology, including CoWoS and HBM stacking, is also a capacity bottleneck. Packaging equipment represents a key sub-sector of the semiconductor equipment industry.
On the news front, domestic memory leader ChangXin Memory Technologies is set to officially list on the STAR Market next Monday, July 27, 2026, making it the second-largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market. Of the total 29.5 billion yuan raised, over 20 billion yuan will be used for wafer fab production line upgrades and DRAM technology R&D. The company aims to boost the monthly capacity of its three 12-inch fabs to 400,000 wafers. As the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, ChangXin's expansion will directly drive equipment procurement demand for lithography, etching, and testing, while also accelerating the qualification and adoption of domestic materials, which is likely to benefit the semiconductor materials and equipment sector's outlook.
Overall, the high prosperity of global AI computing demand is coinciding with the recovery cycle of the memory chip market. Catalyzed by the expansion of a domestic memory leader, semiconductor equipment and materials, as the uppermost link in the industry chain, are expected to continuously benefit from this round of capital expenditure expansion. Data from Wind and the exchange shows that the STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) has seen cumulative net inflows of nearly 7 billion yuan over the past month. Its latest fund size and share count stand at 8.335 billion yuan and 2.752 billion units, respectively, with the fund's share count hitting a record high and growing 383% year-to-date.
The STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) tracks the STAR Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index. It focuses heavily on the "materials + equipment" sectors of the semiconductor upstream, with these industries accounting for up to 87% of the portfolio. This makes it highly sensitive to wafer fab capital expenditure, memory expansion, and the domestic substitution process. Additionally, the index has over 70% exposure to memory chip concepts and a 58% weighting in the "advanced packaging" concept. Off-exchange investors can consider the STAR Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Thematic ETF Linked Fund (A share: 024974 / C share: 024975).
The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is experiencing a dense concentration of industry catalysts. Investors need to be aware of the risks associated with high valuations and trading volatility. The valuation of the semiconductor equipment sector is already at a historical high, and the trading structure is quite crowded. Profit-taking and a downturn in market sentiment could trigger significant fluctuations. Investors should make rational judgments and invest cautiously based on their own risk tolerance.
Important reminder from the editor: The MACD golden cross signal has formed, and these stocks are showing good momentum!