In terms of market outlook, the news from the weekend suggests that today’s rebound in both markets is largely expected. The consensus on Hong Kong stocks proves strong, as the index fluctuated around the opening price throughout the day, nearly forming a straight line. The Hang Seng Index closed 2.42% higher. The U.S. government shutdown continues, with rising public dissatisfaction. On October 18, 2025, one of the largest nationwide protests in recent years erupted in the U.S., with around 7 million protesters marching in over 2,700 towns across all 50 states under the slogan “No Kings,” expressing strong discontent towards the Trump administration's policies. This situation is highly unfavorable for Trump, prompting him to seek strategies to reverse his passive stance, starting with easing relations with China. The pressure on Trump increased significantly after the Netherlands faced export bans imposed by China, necessitating an explanation to the Dutch. In an interview, Trump remarked that imposing a 100% tariff on China is "unsustainable" for the U.S. economy. Although he has intensified pressure on trade with Beijing, it is clear he does not intend to destroy China and is eager to negotiate. Following this, a new round of U.S.-China trade discussions will be held. President Trump cited rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three main issues raised by the U.S. concerning China. These are critical concerns for the U.S., but it remains to be seen what leverage the U.S. has to exchange. Additionally, there is a push to swiftly end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine is likened to a bottomless pit, continuously demanding aid from the U.S., which also needs to prioritize support for Israel, leaving little funding available. The only feasible approach seems to be to persuade Russia to agree to a ceasefire. However, Russia is in a dominant position and can only afford to sacrifice Ukrainian interests. Reports indicate that Trump has explicitly refused to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles and urged President Zelensky to accept Russia's peace terms, including relinquishing the Donbas region, warning that otherwise, Ukraine could be “destroyed.” Furthermore, the U.S.-Russia talks are set to take place in Hungary, a strategic choice given Hungary’s cool relationship with Europe, allowing for discreet negotiations away from EU scrutiny. When European journalists pressed on this secret, the spokesperson reacted with expletives, revealing their disregard for pretense. International gold prices experienced a notable correction on the 18th and 20th after surpassing $4,200 last week to set new highs. This was expected as the maneuvers were primarily driven by the deterioration of relations. With upcoming negotiations, profit-taking is likely to occur. Meanwhile, domestic risk controls are also in place, as Everbright Bank has started adjusting its agency for personal precious metals business, gradually uncontracting without positions, while several banks have alerted clients to risks; these measures aim to better protect investors' interests. 赤峯黃金 (06693) and 山東黃金 (01787) both fell over 5%. This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic operational data for the first three quarters of 2025. The data shows a GDP of 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% based on constant prices, buoyed by decent performance in industrial outputs and exports, while consumer spending, investments, and real estate have taken a hit. Therefore, further stimulus is necessary, making the critical meetings this week particularly noteworthy. Today, robotics stocks performed strongly, spurred by several catalysts. Yushou Technology unveiled its H2 humanoid robot, standing 180cm tall and weighing 70kg. Wang Chuang, a partner at Zhiyuan Robotics, stated that roughly 1,000 units of the entire Xuanzhi series have been shipped, with projections for several thousand units next year. “We are currently the largest supplier of humanoid robots globally, even surpassing Musk in shipments.” According to reports from UBTECH Robotics (09880), the company secured a bid for the “Guangxi Intelligent Data Collection and Testing Center Equipment Procurement and Installation” project, with an order value of 126 million yuan. The procurement encompasses UBTECH's latest self-charging humanoid robot, Walker S2, planned for delivery within 2025 after contract signing. Following a 250 million yuan global large order in September and multiple recent multimillion orders, this is another major humanoid robot contract for UBTECH. To date, the Walker series alone has garnered over 630 million yuan in orders this year. With such contracts, substantial development is assured, leading to a near 10% surge in stock price today. On the evening of October 17, Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) announced that due to its stock price consistently exceeding the upper limit of its repurchase program, the board approved raising the repurchase price limit from 35.75 yuan per share to 60 yuan per share, extending the repurchase period by two months to February 28, 2026. This is a significant move; companies executing substantial buybacks gain market confidence, reflected by today’s stock increase of over 8%. At this stage, companies engaging in major repurchases are gaining popularity, as seen with CHINA RES GAS (01193), which has reserved enough cash for repurchases and anticipates buying back approximately 60 million shares by the end of the year, constituting 2.6% of its issued shares; this resulted in a price increase of over 4% today. Leapmotor (09863) reported a significant stake increase from major shareholders, following which its stock rose over 6%. Following the imposition of port fees in both the U.S. and China, the global shipping landscape has shifted dramatically, expected to create a winnowing process in the industry where less resilient players will gradually exit. Core commodities may benefit from this, alongside anticipated constrictions on India's purchases of Russian oil. COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) is likely to see VLCC freight rates strengthen in 4Q25/1Q26 due to OPEC+ production boosts and increased demand for inventory replenishment and cross-regional arbitrage. Today, its stock increased by nearly 8%. Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) appears less impacted by fee shocks thanks to a diversified business structure; moreover, the company can transfer costs to clients through long-term leases and flexible scheduling, resulting in a stock rise of over 3% today. The aviation sector is also witnessing a boon, with favorable factors evident from exchange rates, tourism, and oil prices, including a new logic where disrupted maritime transport flows may divert to air transport, leading to continued investment in airlines. The standout performer is China Eastern Airlines (00670), which is strategically positioned with clear proposals to "fly further, fly internationally, and fly to emerging markets." The volume of international flights originating from Shanghai has exceeded 110% of levels seen in the same period of 2019. New international routes totaling 14 are set to open in the first half of 2025, making it the airline with the most international traffic points in China. Its stock surged over 9% today, while other airlines such as China Southern Airlines (01055) and Air China (00753) rose over 5%. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Mu Xi Integrated Circuits (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.'s IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will enter the listing review committee on October 24. This swift progress indicates strong support from regulators for technological initiatives. Public Utilities (01635) has not only invested in Mu Xi Integrated but has also positioned itself with other companies such as Moore Threads (GPU) and Yushou Technology (robotics), forming an eco-synergy from "computing power chips to intelligent terminals to application scenarios." Any IPO can be seen as a catalyst for its stocks, which saw nearly a 24% increase today. Recently, Youjia Innovation (MINIEYE) formally received the award notice confirming it has become the winning bidder for the Tongxiang City Integrated Intelligent Cloud Traffic Perception Project (2025 Autonomous Bus Procurement Project), totaling 11.85 million yuan. This project focuses on integrated intelligent cloud scenarios, having unique value among peers. It marks a critical step in scaling the commercialization of Youjia's Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, transitioning its commercial processes to a new phase, with a stock increase of over 7%. The autonomous driving lidar leader, ROBOSENSE (02498), is also worth attention.
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