Latest research indicates that iPhone 17 series inventory preparation for the second half of 2025 will slightly exceed 90 million units, essentially flat compared to last year's 90-95 million units. Previous market concerns about inventory preparation declining 5%-10% year-over-year have partially subsided as Apple product tariff pressures have eased. Apple's supply chain is entering a significant upgrade cycle for 2025-2026, with new model inventory, specification upgrades, and stock performance worth monitoring.
I. New Model Inventory: Essentially Flat, Market Concerns Ease
iPhone 17 series inventory preparation for the second half of 2025 (2H25) will slightly exceed 90 million units, essentially flat compared to last year's 90-95 million units. Previous market concerns about inventory preparation declining 5%-10% year-over-year have partially subsided as Apple product tariff pressures have eased. Key suppliers such as Largan and Zhen Ding Technology reported flat July sales, confirming the stable inventory trend.
(iPhone Annual Shipment Trend Chart, 2016-2027E) (iPhone Quarterly Shipment Trend Chart, 2023-2026E) (2025 New iPhone Shipment Estimates, 3Q25-4Q26E)
II. 2025-2026 Specification Upgrades: Multiple Highlights
2025 (iPhone 17 Series) Major Changes: Addition of new "slim" version replacing Plus model, featuring titanium metal casing, single rear camera, increased flexible printed circuit board (FPC) usage, and more compact camera/acoustic/haptic component design.
Pro Series Upgrades: Periscope lens/front camera upgraded to 48MP/24MP (improving image sensor, module, and lens average selling prices), addition of vapor chamber (VC) cooling, cover glass upgrades (50%+ average selling price increase); however, metal casing downgraded from titanium to aluminum alloy (10%-20% average selling price decrease).
Other Upgrades: Application processor (AP)/memory improvements, increased 68-70 decibel microphone penetration.
Benefiting Suppliers: Cowell (camera modules), Lens Tech (cover glass), Zhen Ding Technology (PCB/FPC), Largan (lenses), AAC Technologies (acoustics/cooling).
Pressured Suppliers: BYD Electronic (BYDE, due to casing downgrade).
2026 (iPhone 18 Series) Foldable Model: Expected launch will bring higher value to mechanical/PCB suppliers — cover glass (ultra-thin flexible glass UTG) and casing (titanium + hinge) average selling prices doubling, increased PCB/FPC usage, expected to feature dual rear + single front cameras.
Pro Series Upgrades: Main camera may feature variable aperture (major upgrade requiring additional optical/mechanical components, improving lens/module average selling prices); vapor chamber cooling materials upgraded from copper to copper/steel (improving average selling prices).
Benefiting Suppliers: Foldable-related — Lens Tech (cover glass), Hon Hai (assembly), Zhen Ding Technology (PCB/FPC); main camera upgrade-related — Largan (lenses), Cowell (camera modules).
(2025-2026 New iPhone Key Specification Changes) (iPhone Component Supply Chain Distribution)
III. Stock Performance: Faster Recovery During Upgrade Cycles
Historical Pattern: Supply chain stock prices typically rise before new product launches, then decline post-launch due to profit-taking; however, during upgrade cycles (such as 2013H2-2014H1 iPhone 5s to 6, 2016H2-2017H1 iPhone 7 to 8/X, 2019 iPhone 11), stock prices recover faster.
Since May this year, key supplier stock prices have risen an average of 13%.
Post-Launch Trend Key: Apple's pricing strategy and consumer feedback will determine fourth-quarter demand and stock performance.
(Apple Supply Chain Stock Performance Around New Product Launches - Average Performance Summary)
IV. Stock Recommendations: Rating and Target Price Adjustments
Risk Warnings: Smartphone shipments below expectations, slower specification upgrade progress, tariff and geopolitical risks, intensified industry competition, etc.