According to the latest mobile phone industry survey from TrendForce, global smartphone production reached 275 million units in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting an 8% decline compared to the same period last year. This contraction was narrower than previously forecast, with overall performance surpassing market expectations.

TrendForce attributes the better-than-expected quarterly results to two primary factors. Firstly, concerns among some consumers that rising memory prices would continue to push up device costs, leading to further price hikes for new models in 2027, prompted early purchases. Secondly, several brands that had previously over-corrected their production plans downward due to memory cost increases have begun restocking and adjusting as market conditions stabilize.

Driven by these effects, TrendForce has revised its full-year 2026 smartphone production forecast upward from 1.05 billion units to 1.07 billion units. The projected annual decline has also narrowed from 16% to 14%.

TrendForce emphasizes that this short-term market warming does not signify a genuine recovery but rather reflects a transient phenomenon driven by pre-emptive consumption. As this wave of purchasing enthusiasm subsides, coupled with expectations that memory contract prices will continue to climb in 2027, next year's smartphone production performance may face certain adjustment pressures.

Examining major brand production performance in Q2 2026, Samsung benefited from the delayed launch effect of its flagship models, recording quarterly production of 62 million units, an increase of approximately 7% year-on-year, securing the top market share position. To offset the high costs of memory, Samsung has significantly increased its ODM production ratio in mid-to-low-end product lines, leveraging ODM manufacturers' flexible design and manufacturing cost advantages to maintain price competitiveness.

In second place, Apple (AAPL.US) produced approximately 52 million units, up about 14% year-on-year. This growth was primarily attributed to the well-calibrated pricing strategy of the iPhone 17 series and strong sales performance during the first three quarters. However, with the upcoming iPhone 18 series expected to carry higher price tags, whether subsequent sales momentum will be affected remains a key market observation point.

OPPO, Xiaomi (01810), and vivo ranked third through fifth in production volume for Q2, with approximately 30 million, 29 million, and 21 million units respectively. These three brands have adopted a strategy focused on maintaining basic market share while prioritizing profit stability. Notably, OPPO and vivo command a relatively high proportion of sales in the Chinese market.

Transsion recorded production of nearly 20 million units in Q2, down approximately 27% year-on-year, ranking sixth in market share. As the brand's primary focus is on entry-level and low-end phones, coupled with relatively limited low-cost memory inventory, it has been more significantly impacted by the recent memory price surge.

Short-term restocking does not signal a trend reversal. Overall, TrendForce believes the upward revision of this year's production forecast mainly reflects the phased effects of pre-emptive consumption and production plan restocking, rather than being a signal of genuine improvement in market fundamentals. As this wave of purchasing enthusiasm fades and memory cost pressures are expected to persist into 2027, the future trajectory of the global smartphone industry warrants close monitoring.