Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that Q3 is the traditional off-season for the cement industry, with cement prices showing a high-to-low pattern in 2025. According to Digital Cement Network, Q3 2025 average cement price was 353.1 yuan/ton, down 27.6 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter and 33.5 yuan/ton year-on-year. Cement production in July and August declined 5.5% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively. The cement industry's Q3 profitability is expected to face overall pressure.

For glass fiber, according to Zhuochuang Information, Q3 2025 average price of winding direct yarn 2400TEX fell 108.8 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter and 54.0 yuan/ton year-on-year, while prices of other mid-to-high-end yarn categories remained relatively stable. Q3 2025 glass fiber industry is expected to continue the differentiation trend, with low-end coarse yarn profitability relatively weak while mid-to-high-end categories maintain improvement momentum.

Regarding consumer building materials, since Q3 2025, multiple sectors including waterproofing and gypsum board have successively raised prices. Price increases may be gradually and continuously implemented, with Q3 2025 prices expected to stabilize quarter-on-quarter and improve subsequently. Price pressure has eased, reflecting enterprises' strategic shift from "volume-cost-profit" to "price-cost-profit" models, with possibility of further price increases.

For glass, in Q2 2025, photovoltaic glass prices achieved recovery driven by new energy grid-connected electricity participation in market trading policies, but gradually declined after the rush installation ended in May. Q3 2025 photovoltaic glass sector profitability is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter, with leading companies showing stronger recovery momentum, though observation is still needed for the second half following the end of rush installations.

**Shenwan Hongyuan's Main Viewpoints:**

**Cement: Q3 2025 Off-Season Profitability Decline, Capacity Reduction and Stable Growth Remain Industry Mainline**

Q3 is the traditional off-season for cement industry, with 2025 cement prices showing high-to-low pattern. Cement prices began declining from mid-to-late May, continuing to fall in Q3 2025, with July-August cement production declining year-on-year. According to Digital Cement Network, Q3 2025 average cement price was 353.1 yuan/ton, down 27.6 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter and 33.5 yuan/ton year-on-year, with July-August production declining 5.5% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively.

Q3 2025 coal prices remained at low levels year-on-year, with average cement-coal price spread of 266.9 yuan/ton, down 32.9 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter and 10.4 yuan/ton year-on-year. Cement industry Q3 profitability is expected to face overall pressure.

Cement overseas expansion continues progressing, with Huaxin Cement and West China Cement capacity deployment continuing, and African cement profitability expected to remain high and continue improving. On September 24, six ministries jointly released the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," shifting policy focus from revenue to profit perspective, further requiring cement industry to complete excess capacity indicator disposal before end of 2025. Q4 is expected to be peak period for supplementary capacity indicators, with industry capacity contraction likely to accelerate.

**Glass Fiber: Mid-to-High-End Product Price Elasticity Stronger, Special Fabric Profit Contribution Continues Increasing**

Since Q1 2024, glass fiber price center has continuously risen, with wind power, chopped strands, and thermoplastic yarn product prices successively improving. Leading companies like China Jushi have leveraged product structure advantages to achieve certain performance improvements. According to Zhuochuang Information, Q3 2025 average price of winding direct yarn 2400TEX fell 108.8 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter and 54.0 yuan/ton year-on-year, while other mid-to-high-end yarn category prices remained relatively stable.

Q3 2025 glass fiber industry is expected to continue differentiation trend, with low-end coarse yarn profitability relatively weak while mid-to-high-end categories maintain improvement momentum. Special fabrics maintain prosperity, with SINOMA Science & Technology and Hongyuan Fiber's special yarn and special fabric capacity successively commissioned, with Q3 sales volume expected to grow further quarter-on-quarter.

**Consumer Building Materials: Quality Companies Expected to Further Highlight Alpha, Q3 2025 Price-Raised Categories Worth Observing**

Q3 2025 residential real estate demand remains relatively weak, with retail building materials potentially performing relatively better. Post-cycle sectors with prominent brand value, strong retail attributes, and high renovation ratios such as coatings and ceramics are expected to shine, especially leading companies with strong brands and channels are expected to benefit further. Africa, South America and other regions' urbanization rates gradually improving, with post-cycle renovation building materials maintaining good landscape and prosperity.

Since Q3 2025, multiple sectors including waterproofing and gypsum board have successively raised prices. Price increases may be gradually and continuously implemented, with Q3 2025 prices expected to stabilize quarter-on-quarter and improve subsequently. Price pressure has eased, reflecting enterprises' strategic shift from "volume-cost-profit" to "price-cost-profit" models, with possibility of further price increases.

**Glass: Q3 2025 Photovoltaic Glass Slight Decline, Flat Glass Bottom-Building Awaits Recovery**

In Q2 2025, photovoltaic glass prices achieved recovery driven by new energy grid-connected electricity participation in market trading policies, but gradually declined after rush installation ended in May. Q3 2025 photovoltaic glass sector profitability is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter, with leading companies showing stronger recovery momentum, though observation needed for second half following rush installation end.

Flat glass Q3 2025 average prices continued declining, with profit pressure still significant. Current prices suggest small and medium enterprises in the industry have successively entered negative gross margin or even cash loss stages, with second half potentially welcoming cold repair acceleration and supply contraction market conditions.

Current main contradictions in glass industry include: first, real estate completion decline causing demand sluggishness, while furnace production characteristics determine industry supply rigidity and difficulty in adjustment; second, significant production cost differences between different fuel glass types, with completed coal-to-gas conversion glass furnaces having lower profits than companies still using petroleum coke fuel. Industry is expected to further promote coal-to-gas conversion in next two years, facilitating gradual exit of backward, high-pollution production lines, with industry profitability expected to improve.

**Target Recommendations: Focus on Q3 Report Improvement Expectations and Stable Growth Capacity Reduction, Outstanding Alpha Individual Stocks**

Cement industry: Recommend attention to Conch Cement (600585.SH), CONCH VENTURE (00586), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), Tianshan Share (000877.SZ), Tapai Group (002233.SZ), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Jinyu Jidong (000401.SZ), CR Building Materials Technology (01313), etc.

Glass fiber industry: Recommend outstanding performance China Jushi (600176.SH), suggest attention to SINOMA Science & Technology (002080.SZ), Hongyuan Fiber (603256.SH), International Composite Materials (301526.SZ) and other stocks benefiting from special glass fiber fabric high prosperity.

Consumer building materials sector: Suggest attention to BNBM (600176.SH), SKSHU Paint (603737.SH), Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies (300737.SZ), Tubao (002043.SZ), Hango Group (301136.SZ), KEDA Industrial (600499.SH), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Jianlang Hardware (002791.SZ), Dongpeng Holdings (003012.SZ), Monalisa (002918.SZ), etc.

Glass sector: Suggest attention to cost-advantaged Kibing Group (601636.SH), CSG A (000012.SZ), Flat Glass (601865.SH), Xinyi Glass (00868), Xinyi Solar (00968), etc. For pharmaceutical glass, focus on leading company Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (600529.SH).

New materials and new business directions: Suggest attention to Yalian Machinery (301191.SZ), AVIC Sanxin (600552.SH), COFCO Engineering & Technology (301058.SZ), etc.

**Risk Warning:** Cement capacity control intensity below expectations, industry supply shocks, further deterioration of competitive environment damaging product prices.