Industry Reset Is A Necessary Lesson While Strength Building Is The Real Mastery In Solar

Deep News
07/25

The solar photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a significant shift in its development pace. This period of adjustment can be summarized in two key phrases: the reset is a required course, and building strength is the true skill.

Over the past few years, driven by a rapid wave of capacity expansion, the production capacity for solar polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules has all surpassed 1,000 GW. In contrast, global new installed capacity demand for 2026 is projected to be only between 550 GW and 600 GW.

With this severe supply-demand mismatch, low-price "involution" has continued to intensify. For example, the average price of dense polysilicon has fallen from 52 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 32.5 yuan/kg in early July, and module bidding prices have even dropped below 0.7 yuan/W. The result is a cycle of "producing more leads to more losses, and more losses lead to more production." This type of self-consuming growth is essentially mortgaging the industry's future.

From this perspective, the current deep adjustment is a natural reflection of the industry's cyclical operation. Industry consolidation is never achieved simply by "waiting it out." The essence of this round of adjustment is a shift in the competitive logic from "scale expansion" to "value-based competition." In the past, the race was about who could bring capacity online faster and who had larger shipment volumes. Now, the competition centers on technology reserves, cost control, and full life-cycle service capabilities. Companies still trying to survive through low prices will inevitably be eliminated. This is not only a market rule but also the necessary path for the solar industry to mature.

If the "adjustment" is a passive inevitability, then "building strength" is an active choice, a true test of a company's internal capabilities.

Over the past two decades, the industry's competition focused on efficiency improvement and cost reduction. Today, with the increasing penetration of renewable energy, grid stability has become the biggest challenge. The national solar utilization rate has fallen to 90.6%, approaching the 90% consumption red line. This means that simply "installing more" is no longer a viable path. The focus of innovation is shifting from "generating electricity" to "stabilizing the power supply." Areas like solar-plus-storage integration, grid-forming technology, and smart dispatch are becoming the new competitive frontiers.

A larger growth opportunity lies in the synergy between computing and electricity. The explosive growth of AI computing power is creating entirely new electricity demands. The hunger for green energy from data centers and intelligent computing centers provides a new application area for solar power. Currently, several leading companies have shifted from "selling modules" to "selling systems" and "selling solutions," accelerating their layout in supporting businesses for AI Data Center (AIDC) intelligent computing centers. This is the true "building of strength"—not stubbornly fighting on price in an old track, but strategically positioning in a new one.

Of course, "building strength" requires not only strategic vision but also patience and persistence. In the current environment of widespread industry losses, how many companies can still calmly invest continuously in R&D and proactively identify and invest in high-quality technological innovation directions? This is precisely the key to gaining an advantage in the next cycle.

Furthermore, the introduction of mandatory national standards has elevated safety from a "corporate voluntary" matter to an "industry baseline." While this increases compliance costs in the short term, it will solidify the industry's foundation in the long run—this serves as an institutional guarantee for "building strength."

Looking at industry trends, institutions predict a potential inflection point for demand in the second half of the year, with domestic new installed capacity expected to return to growth in 2027. The China Electricity Council forecasts that solar power generation capacity will surpass coal power for the first time this year—the major trend of an accelerating new energy power system remains unchanged.

The adjustment is a required course that cannot be avoided; building strength is a true skill that cannot be achieved by waiting. Companies that persist in technological innovation and layout in new tracks during this downturn are expected to stand out in the next cycle.

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