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Recent supply dynamics: According to SMM, a January 22 report indicated that Rio Tinto Group will reduce production at its Australian Yarwun alumina refinery by 40% (approximately 1.2 million tons per year) starting October 2026, aiming to extend operational lifespan and explore modernization plans. Production data: Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show China's electrolytic aluminum output in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. Mysteel survey data indicated that China's average daily primary aluminum output for that month was 123,500 tons, up 600 tons from the previous month. Data from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) showed global primary aluminum production reached 6.296 million tons that month. Market structure: According to foreign media reports, influenced by smelter closures and the EU's carbon border tax, the EU's primary aluminum production has dropped to 950,000 tons, resulting in a structural deficit as high as 93%. Deutsche Bank's view: It is anticipated that aluminum prices could reach a yearly high of $3,100 per ton in the second quarter, with the annual average price projected to be around $2,925 per ton. Galaxy Futures' view: Market attention this week is on the Federal Reserve's decision. On the supply side, a facility with 300,000 tons of capacity is expected to resume production in late March, which will help narrow the global supply deficit. Aluminum prices are significantly influenced by financial attributes, requiring sustained high profits to stimulate supply. Nanhua Futures' view: The release of new capacity in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, combined with a marginal weakening in consumption ahead of the Spring Festival, keeps the inventory accumulation logic unchanged this week. Short-term risk-averse sentiment is boosting prices with a stronger bias, while the long-term supply-demand gap supports a bullish trend. Xinhu Futures' view: As the Spring Festival approaches, consumption is weakening. A decline in aluminum billet production has led to increased ingot casting by electrolytic aluminum plants, resulting in rising social inventories, although pressure remains relatively contained for now. Short-term aluminum prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended.

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