An energy think tank has stated that Europe's dependence on U.S. natural gas is expected to reach an unprecedented level this year, as the United States fills the supply gap caused by reduced shipments from the Middle East.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) noted in a report that up to two-thirds of Europe's liquefied natural gas (LNG) could come from the United States, setting a new record. In terms of overall natural gas supply share, the U.S. may even surpass Norway, which is currently Europe's largest pipeline gas supplier.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the European Union has been striving to diversify its natural gas sources to avoid over-reliance on a single supplier. U.S. seaborne LNG has become a key alternative to Russian pipeline gas, but some European officials have warned that Europe might be shifting from one dependency to another.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, IEEFA's lead energy analyst for Europe, said, "LNG has become the Achilles' heel of Europe's energy security strategy, exposing the region to higher gas prices and new supply disruption risks."

Jaller-Makarewicz pointed out that if Qatar's LNG production facilities face prolonged shutdowns due to the Iran war, U.S. gas supplies to the EU could exceed those from Norway.