MMG (HKEX: 01208) shares rose nearly 4% in the afternoon session, extending gains.

At the time of writing, the stock was up 2.22% to HK$8.29, with a turnover of HK$227 million.

Analyst Insights on Copper Leverage

Research highlights that MMG is a highly pure copper play, with nearly 90% of its estimated 2025 gross profit linked to the metal, giving it the highest earnings sensitivity to copper prices among its peers.

While the company's share price has underperformed international peers year-to-date, a positive outlook on copper prices is expected to narrow the valuation gap between Chinese and international copper equities, providing room for a potential re-rating for MMG.

Enhanced Profitability and Debt Reduction

The firm is anticipated to see a significant improvement in its profit conversion, benefiting from an enhanced ability to absorb fixed costs and substantial deleveraging.

The company's total borrowings have decreased from US$4.6 billion in the 2024 fiscal year to US$3.3 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, with interest expenses forecast to fall by 26% to US$215 million.

Projections indicate MMG could achieve a compound annual growth rate of 52% in net profit between the 2025 and 2028 fiscal years.

Specifically, net profit for the 2026 fiscal year is estimated to reach US$1.6 billion, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 216%.