GTHT Securities has issued a research report stating that LI NING (ASX: 02331)'s 10-year partnership with Stephen Curry holds significant value. The report highlights that the inherent worth of Curry Brand is substantial, and greater attention should be paid to the long-term development implications, including the operational potential of a major athlete's personal brand and the crucial support this deal provides for LI NING's overseas expansion.

The firm maintains its previous profit forecasts, projecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 to be RMB 2.93 billion, RMB 3.31 billion, and RMB 3.78 billion, respectively. Applying a 2026 P/E ratio of 20x and an exchange rate of HKD 1 = RMB 0.87, the target price is set at HK$26.08, with an "Add" rating maintained.

Key Points from the Report

NBA star Stephen Curry and LI NING have officially announced a 10-year contract to jointly operate and expand his personal brand, Curry Brand, globally. The agreement will cover basketball products, athleisure apparel, a full range of golf products, and grants Curry Brand the rights to sign other athletes.

This collaboration is similar to the model of Nike's partnership with Jordan. The influence of Curry himself and the brand power of Curry Brand present new opportunities for LI NING's basketball business and its globalization strategy.

Stephen Curry, currently playing for the NBA's Golden State Warriors, is a globally influential star. He is a 4-time NBA champion, 2-time regular season MVP, 1-time Finals MVP, and holds the title of the NBA's all-time regular season three-point leader. He was with Nike from 2009 to 2013 but did not receive a signature shoe during that period.

Since signing with Under Armour in 2013 and upgrading to establish the exclusive Curry Brand in 2020, signature shoes from Curry 1 to Curry 12 have been launched. The brand's annual sales are projected to reach $100-120 million by FY2026. In November 2025, both parties announced a mutual termination and separation, with Curry regaining full independent ownership of Curry Brand, while Under Armour will transition product sales until October 2026.

The report believes this signing holds the following significant implications for LI NING: Firstly, Curry Brand itself possesses considerable value, representing a basketball business on the scale of hundreds of millions of dollars with growth potential. LI NING's basketball segment saw retail sales growth of 46% and 25% year-on-year in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with its contribution to total retail sales peaking at 29% in 2022, corresponding to revenue of approximately RMB 7.5 billion. In 2025, the basketball segment contributed 17% to retail sales, with revenue around RMB 5 billion, indicating substantial room for recovery compared to the historical peak.

Secondly, the long-term operation of a major athlete's personal brand offers a vast runway. For instance, Jordan Brand contributed $7.27 billion in revenue to Nike in FY25, spanning categories including basketball and athleisure. LI NING plans to open standalone Curry Brand stores in China and the US, and the firm is optimistic about the brand's long-term operational value.

Thirdly, this deal serves as a vital catalyst for LI NING's overseas push. Leveraging Curry's global influence and recognition among international consumers, the partnership is expected to effectively open up core overseas markets such as North America and Europe, enhancing LI NING's global brand awareness and accelerating its globalization process.

Risk factors include same-store and online sales growth falling short of expectations, a potential weakening of the core China LI NING brand momentum, strategic uncertainty arising from possible future management changes, and the underperformance of key product launches.