Goldman Sachs has released a research report indicating that investor positioning in the automotive sector is relatively low heading into 2026, with primary focus on three key issues: 1) the trajectory of industry sales volumes; 2) rising costs of raw materials and memory; and 3) potential for further policy stimulus. The bank assessed the impact of increasing commodity and memory prices, identifying potential effects on profit margins based on assumptions regarding the extent of commodity price increases, the degree to which these costs can be passed on to automakers, and high/low scenarios for memory costs corresponding to different battery capacities and computing power. For the covered OEMs and suppliers, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 12-month target prices by up to 12% and reduced its profit forecasts by an average of approximately 16%. These revisions reflect an anticipated weaker demand environment in January 2026 and the first quarter, coupled with rising raw material and memory costs.

The report noted that, according to its China Basic Materials monitor for January, price changes for metals such as lithium, steel, aluminum, and copper ranged from a 9% decrease to an 80% increase as of January 2026. However, Goldman Sachs' commodities team expects the pace of price increases for these metals to slow to a range of approximately 0% to 23% for the full year 2026. Simultaneously, the bank's global semiconductor team forecasts that standard DRAM prices are projected to increase by about 180% year-over-year in 2026, compared to an 85% year-to-date increase.