Goldman Sachs held a South Korea memory expert webinar on July 28 and released a summary on July 29. The participating experts believe that traditional DRAM prices will maintain a strong "double-digit percentage" growth momentum this year, while HBM prices have significant room for a sharp increase, potentially even doubling next year. Long-term agreements are increasingly binding the market, and threats from Chinese competitors are limited in the short to medium term. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics.

DRAM to Rise Steadily This Year, HBM Could Double Next Year

Experts provided a clear outlook for DRAM price trends this year.

According to the summary, experts predict that traditional DRAM prices will achieve "double-digit percentage" sequential growth in the third quarter of 2026, aligning with the recent strong rebound in spot prices. Entering the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing supply shortages, experts believe that "another double-digit sequential increase" is also possible.

They argue that with no significant increase in supply and continued demand from AI servers, prices naturally tend to rise rather than fall.

The story for HBM is more aggressive. Experts believe that due to rising traditional DRAM prices, there is a "possibility of a doubling" in HBM pricing next year. Goldman Sachs' own forecast is that Samsung's HBM prices will see an 87% year-on-year increase in 2027, a figure already above the Bloomberg consensus sell-side estimate of 52%.

Long-Term Agreements Strengthen, Over Half of Server DRAM Already Locked In

Whether price increases materialize depends on contract enforceability.

According to the summary, experts point out that long-term agreements (LTAs) include several strong binding clauses: substantial upfront payments, "take-or-pay" provisions, and cancellation penalties. This means that once buyers sign a contract, the cost of exiting is very high.

Currently, over half of server DRAM is covered by LTAs, and experts expect this proportion to continue increasing in the future.

What does this mean for memory manufacturers? Higher revenue visibility and stronger bargaining power on pricing. Goldman Sachs also clearly states in its investment thesis that, compared to the past, this cycle's LTAs are more binding, helping to support Samsung's earnings expectations.

Chinese Competitors Pose Limited Threat in the Short to Medium Term

The market has been concerned about the impact of capacity expansion by Chinese memory manufacturers, but experts remain cautious on this.

According to the summary, experts acknowledge that Chinese suppliers are actively expanding capacity, but they believe it is "unlikely for them to become a significant threat to leading players in the near to medium term." The reason lies in the gaps in production yield rates and technical levels between Chinese manufacturers and top-tier players.

In other words, the scale of capacity expansion does not equal effective supply, and technological barriers are difficult to overcome in the short term.

Capacity Expansion Accelerates, but Effective Bit Growth Remains Limited

Capacity is expanding, but actual supply growth is not proportional.

According to the summary, experts expect capacity expansion this year to be faster than historical levels. However, due to the high trade ratio of HBM—producing the same amount of HBM requires consuming more DRAM wafers—actual bit growth is expected to be below historical averages.

This is the key to understanding the current supply-demand dynamics: while capacity appears to be increasing on the surface, the effective supply available for traditional DRAM is not growing in tandem. This is the structural reason supporting the ongoing price increases.

Hybrid Bonding Technology: Gradual Progress, Not a Leapfrog Breakthrough

In terms of HBM technology, hybrid bonding is seen as the next-generation direction, but experts are cautious about its implementation timeline.

According to the summary, experts believe that as the number of stacked DRAM chip layers increases, existing bonding technologies will face growing challenges. However, experts do not expect hybrid bonding to be adopted on a large scale early, because "achieving sufficient yield rates at mass production scale requires considerable time and effort."

Experts judge that memory manufacturers will explore various technological paths, including fluxless bonding, while gradually advancing the introduction of hybrid bonding, rather than achieving it in one step.

Based on these assessments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics common stock, with a 12-month target price of KRW 480,000, and a target of KRW 360,000 for preferred stock.

The report notes that Samsung has begun to show "meaningful progress" in the HBM field. Coupled with higher shareholder return expectations, the firm maintains a positive view on the stock. Key downside risks include a significant deterioration in memory supply and demand, a sharp contraction in smartphone business profit margins, and loss of market share in mobile OLED.