CLSA has released a research report following its recent group conference call for AIA (01299), which was attended by 55 investors. The call conveyed a consistent message: while growth may moderate after a strong first quarter in 2026, the underlying fundamentals remain robust.

Current macroeconomic conditions are constructive, with resilient demand from Mainland visitors, supportive regulatory developments, and improving capital efficiency. The firm has maintained its profit forecasts but has slightly increased its target price from HK$120 to HK$121 after rolling forward its valuation model, reiterating an "Outperform" rating.

The report noted that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the overall macro backdrop remains favorable. Higher interest rates are having a net positive impact, supporting reinvestment returns and the delivery of guaranteed yields, while inflation has a limited effect on short-term claims.

Regarding the Hong Kong market, despite the Renminbi's approximate 6% appreciation year-to-date, there has been no material impact on the purchasing behavior of Mainland visitors. Demand is primarily driven by the interest rate differential between the US and China and the low-return investment environment on the mainland.

Furthermore, while competition in Hong Kong's brokerage channel has intensified, AIA remains focused on high-quality business and partnerships. Regulatory changes in Hong Kong over the past few quarters, such as capping product illustration rates at around 6.5% and limiting first-year commissions to 70%, are expected to curb aggressive pricing, shifting competition towards the quality of insurance advice and value propositions.