The primary factors weighing on gold are elevated US real Treasury yields and a firm US dollar. The sharp deterioration in US non-farm payrolls initially pushed gold prices higher, but a "sell the fact" reaction triggered a rapid pullback. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and officials have maintained a hawkish tone, not fully closing the door on future rate hikes. Middle East geopolitical conflicts still provide some safe-haven support, but with no substantive escalation, safe-haven buying has limited staying power. This week, key data to watch include the Fed meeting minutes, the US services PMI, and initial jobless claims. These data points will disrupt Treasury yields and the dollar, and could easily break the technical structure. Overall, bearish macro factors are dominant, and safe-haven demand can only offer temporary support.

On the daily chart, gold prices peaked and pulled back after an earlier rally to 4,696. The price effectively broke below the 5-day and 10-day short-term moving averages, as well as the 60-day and 100-day medium- to long-term moving averages. Multiple moving averages are capping the price from above, and the larger-cycle picture is one of range-bound weakness. The candlestick has fallen back near the lower Bollinger Band. After consecutive declines, bearish momentum has been somewhat exhausted, but no clear reversal bottom candlestick pattern has emerged. MACD is running below the zero line, and the bearish histogram is contracting, which only indicates oversold rebound demand, not a trend reversal signal. Key daily support sits at 4,110–4,100, with core resistance concentrated at 4,160–4,180. Medium-term strong resistance is at 4,230–4,250. Only a close above the 60-day moving average would reverse the daily corrective pattern.

On the 4-hour chart, the downtrend structure is clear. The price continues to trade below all moving averages, the moving average system is fanning downward, the Bollinger Bands are opening lower, and bears dominate the swing trend. After an earlier dip to the 4,110 low, a range-bound correction followed, but the rebound lacked strength and qualifies as a weak bounce within a downtrend. MACD remains below the zero line, bearish momentum has somewhat converged, but no effective golden cross has formed. On the 4-hour chart, 4,110 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. A decisive break below would open the door to further downside, while 4,160–4,180 above is an important resistance zone where selling pressure will strengthen notably on a rebound.

The 1-hour chart, as the short-term trading timeframe, is more sensitive. After rebounding to 4,226 and hitting resistance, gold prices turned lower again. The price remains under pressure from the 5/10 short-term moving averages while also being capped by the 60 and 100 moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with price hugging the lower band. MACD fast and slow lines have turned down again, and short-term bearish force is being released anew. Short-term support is at 4,124–4,110, with first resistance above at 4,150–4,160, and stronger resistance at 4,175. Only a firm hold above 4,175 would ease the short-term weakness.

In summary: the larger daily-cycle is in a medium-term correction, the 4-hour chart maintains a bearish swing, and the 1-hour chart has weakened again. All three timeframes are aligned in a bearish direction, and the overall bias is bearish. Although an oversold rebound is possible after a round of declines, moving averages across all timeframes are broadly capping the price, and any bounce is more likely a repair move within the downtrend rather than a true reversal. In terms of trading strategy, prioritize opportunities after rebounds face resistance, focusing on the performance of the 4,160–4,180 pressure zone. If the short-term moves lower, pay close attention to whether the key 4,110 support holds. Should that level be decisively broken, further downside space will open up. For the trend to shift from bearish to bullish, smaller timeframes need to break upward, driving the 4-hour and daily charts to hold above key moving average resistance, and only after a clear candlestick and indicator resonance reversal signal appears should bullish opportunities be reassessed.

Trading suggestion: For those holding short positions near 4,160, positions can be reduced near 4,130 and the remainder held. For those without positions, selling is suggested in the 4,140–4,150 area with a manual stop-loss above 4,160. Target a partial reduction near 4,130 with a breakeven stop, and the remaining position can look toward 4,115–4,110, or even be held as a medium-term position targeting the 4,000 psychological round number.

Risk disclosure: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.