Cantor Fitzgerald's latest macro report expresses caution toward the near-term outlook for U.S. equities, citing emerging overbought conditions in the S&P 500 despite maintaining overall optimism. The investment firm acknowledges improving medium-term market fundamentals but warns escalating trade tensions complicate the economic landscape.
"We observe substantially improved equity market conditions from a medium-term perspective," the firm stated, "however, intensifying trade conflicts could exert additional pressure on economic growth while creating upward inflationary pressure." Cantor Fitzgerald anticipates investors will eventually view current trade-related disruptions as one-off events, refocusing attention on long-term growth potential.
Nevertheless, the firm projects a near-term market correction, partially driven by newly announced tariffs taking effect August 1st, which may delay further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technical indicators reinforce this caution: the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassed 70 by June 30th. Historical analysis reveals similar RSI levels frequently precede pullbacks—since 2018, 7 out of 22 comparable instances saw declines exceeding 4%, while nearly half resulted in at least 3% drawdowns.
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