A drug that suppresses appetite is quietly redrawing the map of American consumption. A team led by Jim Reid, Head of Global Macro and Thematic Research at Deutsche Bank, released a report on May 19th titled "Quantifying the GLP-1 Impact: Survey Shows Lasting Shifts in Pharma, Diet, and Dining Industries." The report is based on a global consumer survey conducted from March 20th to 30th this year, involving 550 valid respondents, and analyzes the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on multiple industries.

Survey data indicates that 10% of Americans are currently taking or have taken GLP-1 medications. Considering the adult obesity rate in the U.S. exceeds 40%, this figure has significant room for growth. More critically, those taking the medication have significantly reduced their consumption activities such as dining out at restaurants, ordering takeout, and drinking alcohol.

GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists) is a class of weight-loss drugs currently represented by Ozempic and Mounjaro. Its core mechanism is appetite suppression—users not only "watch what they eat" but experience a physiological reduction in food cravings.

**2030: User Base Could Exceed 20%** A key variable accelerating this trend is the impending availability of oral tablet versions. Previously, GLP-1 drugs were primarily administered via injection, posing psychological and practical barriers for many potential users. Analyst projections suggest that with more convenient oral versions entering the market, the proportion of Americans using GLP-1 drugs could surpass 20% by 2030—effectively doubling the current user base.

In the report, Jim Reid equates GLP-1 with AI, calling them "two disruptive technologies hitting the world at the same time." He writes, "AI may capture more investor attention, but weight-loss drugs are quietly changing the daily lives of millions, bite by bite." He even poses a striking hypothetical: if forced to choose between GLP-1 and an AI chatbot, many would likely opt to keep GLP-1.

**Restaurants, Fast Food, Takeout, Alcohol: Consumption Declines Across the Board** The survey data reveals the direct impact of GLP-1 on consumer behavior with stark numbers: During medication use, visits to full-service restaurants plummeted from 55% to 31%, a drop of nearly half. Visits to fast-food outlets and coffee shops fell from about two-thirds to 37%. The proportion of people ordering takeout and consuming alcohol also dropped from over half to about one-third. The impact on the dining industry is direct and quantifiable.

**Habits Don't 'Bounce Back' After Stopping Medication** Data on post-discontinuation behavior is particularly noteworthy. The typical assumption is that once medication stops, "revenge consumption" occurs, and losses for restaurants and food companies are temporary. However, this survey challenges that expectation.

Analysts clearly state that in most cases, even after stopping GLP-1 medication, users' dietary and consumption habits remain at lower levels; new patterns have become entrenched. As shown in the report's Figure 1, while consumption data slightly recovers after discontinuation, it remains far below pre-medication levels—whether for restaurant visits, takeout frequency, or alcohol consumption, all exhibit characteristics of a "permanent downward shift."

This implies that the impact of GLP-1 on the food, beverage, and dining industries is not a short-term disruption but a structural reshaping of demand.

**Implications for Investors** The report categorizes the impact of GLP-1 into positive beneficiaries and negatively pressured sectors.

The direct beneficiaries are evident: pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk (producer of Ozempic) and Eli Lilly (producer of Mounjaro) face continued demand expansion. As oral versions become widespread, the market's growth potential will further increase.

The sectors facing pressure are broader: * **Dining Industry:** Full-service restaurants, fast-food chains, and coffee brands face pressure on both visit frequency and average spending per customer. * **Food & Beverage Industry:** Demand for snacks, sugary drinks, and alcoholic beverages is declining, and this decline appears persistent. * **Food Delivery Platforms:** Order frequency is decreasing.

Jim Reid concludes in the report, "If demand for GLP-1 continues to climb, it will have profound implications for daily life and market valuations—for both the benefiting and the pressured industries."