The spring of 2026 not only marks a seasonal transition but also heralds the beginning of a new phase for China's economy, as it commences the inaugural year of its "16th Five-Year Plan." During this season, the current state and future trajectory of China's economy remain a topic of significant interest for observers both domestically and internationally.
Over the past year, despite facing a complex and challenging external environment, the Chinese economy has advanced under pressure, evolving towards higher quality and innovation, demonstrating remarkable resilience and vitality. On March 3, during the first press conference of the fourth session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, spokesperson Liu Jieyi highlighted this progress.
The "2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" revealed that China's Gross Domestic Product grew by 5.0% compared to the previous year, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time. Per capita GDP, converted at the average annual exchange rate, reached $13,953, maintaining a level above $13,000 for the third consecutive year.
Sheng Laiyun, Vice Minister of the National Bureau of Statistics, previously emphasized that this new milestone in economic aggregate reflects the enhanced production capacity of China's industrial and agricultural sectors—an economy of over a hundred trillion yuan—and the reinvigorated dynamism of its service industry. It serves as a crucial foundation for the livelihood and employment of hundreds of millions of households and is a concentrated manifestation of China's stable economic fundamentals, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and vast potential.
While addressing transitional challenges within traditional industries, China is also accelerating the development of a modern industrial system, thereby strengthening the foundation of its real economy. The proportion of value-added from the manufacturing sector within the GDP has remained stable, accompanied by continuous optimization of the industrial structure. Notable achievements have been made in key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, machine tools, medical equipment, and shipbuilding, steadily improving the level of self-sufficiency and control in these critical sectors.
Simultaneously, the deep integration of technology and industry is fostering a surge of innovations, cultivating new, high-quality productive forces. The driving force of domestic demand continues to be unleashed; in 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide exceeded 50 trillion yuan for the first time, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth.
Liu Jieyi stressed that the Chinese economy has always advanced by overcoming obstacles and has grown stronger through challenges. Although some persistent issues and new challenges remain, the fundamental strengths, multiple advantages, inherent resilience, and significant potential provide solid support. The fundamental trend of long-term positive growth remains unchanged.
Citing the example of the recently concluded, notably extended Spring Festival holiday, Liu pointed to robust activity in catering, entertainment, and shopping malls. Total consumption by domestic tourists during the holiday period exceeded 803.4 billion yuan, an increase of 126.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year, showcasing the vibrant energy of this super-sized market. Cross-regional passenger trips during the Spring Festival travel rush were estimated at 9.5 billion, equivalent to more than one trip for every person globally, illustrating the dynamic flow of activity across China.
Furthermore, high-level opening-up is accelerating the transformation of the potential of China's vast market into tangible benefits. The full island customs closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port stands as a landmark initiative demonstrating China's unwavering commitment to expanding high-level openness and promoting an open world economy. Post-closure, the Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significantly improved trade liberalization and facilitation, with more convenient international connections. During the Spring Festival holiday, duty-free shopping sales in Hainan grew by 30.8% compared to the previous year's holiday period, and the number of visa-free foreign tourists increased by 75.6%, indicating clear progress in the smooth flow of goods and movement of people.
Currently, international institutions generally hold a positive outlook on China's economic prospects. The International Monetary Fund has projected China's economic growth rate for 2026 at 4.5%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast. Standard Chartered Bank has raised its forecast to 4.6%, citing anticipated improvements in total factor productivity and sustained strength in exports as key supports for growth.
"As long as we maintain firm confidence, leverage our advantages, and effectively address challenges, we will undoubtedly continue to consolidate and expand the momentum of stable and improving growth, propelling the Chinese economy forward steadily and sustainably," Liu Jieyi concluded.