Abstract

Newmark Group Inc. will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview consolidates last quarter’s metrics, consensus forecasts for the current quarter, recent transaction announcements, and prevailing analyst sentiment to frame what matters most for the print and the stock reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 854.72 million US dollars, up 24.51% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.37, up 47.63% year over year, and EBIT of 70.01 million US dollars, up 35.38% year over year; gross margin and net margin were not guided for the quarter. The main business remains anchored by fee-rich management services, service fees and others, where stable fee visibility and operating discipline underpin margin resilience despite quarter-to-quarter swings in transaction volumes. Capital markets commissions appear to be the most promising segment into the print, with last quarter’s revenue of 252.46 million US dollars and recent deal flow suggesting healthy closings; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

For the prior quarter, revenue was 846.52 million US dollars (+27.20% year over year), the gross profit margin was 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.42 million US dollars with a 1.70% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS was $0.33 (+57.14% year over year). A notable financial highlight was EBIT of 103.99 million US dollars, which increased 47.33% year over year and exceeded earlier consensus figures. By business line, management services, service fees and others delivered 344.03 million US dollars, capital markets commissions 252.46 million US dollars, and leasing and other commissions 250.03 million US dollars, while overall company revenue grew 27.20% year over year; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Management services, service fees and others

This franchise, which posted 344.03 million US dollars last quarter, is the company’s largest contributor and a stabilizer for quarterly earnings. The fee mix here tends to benefit from annuity-like contracts and recurring mandates that help offset volatility in transaction-driven lines. With consensus calling for adjusted EPS of $0.37 for the quarter and revenue of 854.72 million US dollars, incremental contribution from these services can influence operating leverage, particularly if overheads remain well-managed. The segment’s cadence is also less dependent on the timing of single large closings, which reduces the risk of an outsized miss should a specific transaction slip beyond quarter-end. Given the 100.00% reported gross margin and a 1.70% net margin last quarter at the group level, investors will look for evidence that the fee-rich mix in this category sustains margin quality even if other areas are choppy. The key watch item is whether management services deliver steady sequential billings and collections to anchor cash conversion when deal fees fluctuate.

Capital markets commissions

Capital markets commissions generated 252.46 million US dollars last quarter and carry the greatest upside torque when larger mandates close inside the quarter. Recent announcements since April indicate an active slate of transactions, including the brokering of a 360.00 million US dollars redevelopment asset sale in Newark, the arrangement of a 325 million British Pounds refinancing for 30 Fenchurch Street in London (roughly 435.30 million US dollars), and a 515.00 million US dollars refinancing for a major Midtown Manhattan office tower. These items suggest a supportive backdrop for fee recognition in the period, with multiple closings landing across May, June, and early July. The breadth of assignments across geographies and asset types indicates diversified deal activity, and that diversification can mitigate the impact of any single market’s pauses in closings. The near-term swing variable remains the timing of cash-fee recognition and the size of success fees attached to these mandates. Execution across multiple lenders and capital sources also tends to support fee capture, but investors should be aware that any late-stage documentation delays can shift fee timing out of the quarter despite otherwise firm demand. If the reported revenue aligns with the 854.72 million US dollars consensus, capital markets fee capture will likely be a key contributor to the upside case on both revenue and EBIT.

Key stock price swing factors this quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction is most sensitive to the spread between reported results and consensus for adjusted EPS ($0.37) and revenue (854.72 million US dollars), alongside management’s qualitative commentary on quarter-to-date bookings and closings. Fee mix will matter: heavier contributions from capital markets commissions can magnify EBIT, while a tilt to management services can stabilize but moderate operating leverage. The prior quarter’s net profit swung down 78.79% quarter over quarter, underscoring how shifts in fee mix and the timing of larger transactions can amplify quarterly GAAP earnings variability; investors will parse whether this quarter’s mix normalizes that dynamic. Cash conversion and expense discipline will be important read-throughs for the remainder of the year, especially if management signals continuity in the announced pipeline of mandates. Any indications of large, already-signed assignments expected to close in the second half could bolster confidence that revenue growth and adjusted EPS progression remain on track relative to current year-over-year forecasts.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the recent institutional commentary, with a 100% skew toward positive ratings among the items reviewed in the period from January 2026 through July 22, 2026. Two well-followed institutions reaffirmed constructive stances: Barclays’ Brendan Lynch maintained a Buy rating with a 19.00 US dollars price target, and KBW’s Jade Rahmani reiterated a Buy with an 18.00 US dollars target. The crux of the bullish outlook leans on three pillars. First, last quarter’s delivery—846.52 million US dollars of revenue (+27.20% year over year) and adjusted EPS of $0.33 (+57.14% year over year)—demonstrated traction versus expectations, supporting the view that operating leverage is beginning to reassert itself. Second, the quarter-to-date cadence of announced capital markets assignments points to sustained mandate flow spanning refinancings and asset sales across multiple regions, a setup that can support fee capture even if any single geography experiences slower decision cycles. Third, cost discipline and mix improvements underpin consensus for EBIT of 70.01 million US dollars this quarter (+35.38% year over year) and adjusted EPS of $0.37 (+47.63% year over year), which, if met or exceeded, should validate the narrative of improving profitability as the year progresses. Bullish analysts emphasize that breadth in transaction types and counterparties, evidenced by recent London and New York financing wins and a sizable redevelopment asset sale, reduces reliance on a narrow set of fee sources. They also note that management services, service fees and others, at 344.03 million US dollars last quarter, provides a stabilizing backbone that can absorb quarter-to-quarter variability inherent in capital markets. In their view, this combination of diversified fee engines and a visible backlog creates a favorable setup for delivering the 24.51% year-over-year revenue growth embedded in current-quarter expectations. The majority camp expects investors to focus on the ratio of transaction-driven fees to recurring fees and on any commentary about signed-but-not-yet-closed deals slated for the second half. A delivery in line with or better than the 854.72 million US dollars top-line and $0.37 adjusted EPS markers is seen as sufficient to reinforce upward momentum in earnings revisions. Meanwhile, confirming that deal processes already in advanced stages are tracking to schedule would address the timing risk that contributed to the prior quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit swing. On balance, the prevailing institutional stance is that the pipeline, plus disciplined execution, supports the consensus case into July 29, 2026, with upside potential tied to the size and timing of capital markets fee recognitions in the reported period.