The People's Bank of China has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy throughout this year, integrating existing and incremental measures to foster a suitable monetary and financial environment for consolidating the economy's positive trajectory.

Financial data from the first seven months indicates that aggregate indicators, including social financing scale and broad money (M2), have grown at a reasonable pace, with the cost of social financing remaining persistently low and overall financing conditions relatively accommodative.

As the release window for August data approaches, industry experts are offering their forecasts on new credit and social financing figures for the month. Market consensus points to a likely year-on-year decline in both August 2026 new lending and social financing compared to the same period in 2025.

Data shows that new credit in August 2025 reached 590 billion yuan, while social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan.

On the new credit front, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at东方金诚, suggests that new loans in August could reach approximately 480 billion yuan, influenced by seasonal factors. However, given the prevailing trend toward slower but higher-quality lending, he anticipates a year-on-year decrease of about 110 billion yuan.

Additionally, with declining bond market yields, corporate bond financing is substituting for bank loans, while maturing mid-to-long-term corporate loans have risen notably, further contributing to the expected year-on-year decline in new yuan loans for August.

Regarding social financing scale, Liao Zhiming, chief fixed income analyst at华源证券, forecasts an increase of 2.23 trillion yuan in August, down year-on-year, with the growth rate easing to 7.3% at month-end, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month.

Wang Qing projects new social financing of approximately 2 trillion yuan for August, representing a year-on-year reduction of around 570 billion yuan. Beyond the expected decline in new loans directed to the real economy, corporate bond financing and government bond financing may also see year-on-year reductions due to significant increases in maturing amounts.

Nevertheless, government bond issuance has accelerated notably in August, signaling heightened policy support for economic stabilization.

In its recently published second-quarter 2026 monetary policy implementation report, the central bank reiterated its commitment to "continuing the moderately loose monetary policy" and emphasized "comprehensively utilizing and timely adjusting monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions, guiding social financing scale and money supply growth in line with economic growth and price level expectations."

Looking ahead, Wang Qing anticipates that monetary policy will strengthen coordination with fiscal and industrial policies, intensifying counter-cyclical adjustments. On one front, structural monetary policy tools are expected to be further expanded in scope and scale, with lower rates, to better support tech enterprises and private firms, facilitate the transition between old and new growth drivers, and stabilize employment.

On another front, considering current economic trends and price dynamics, the People's Bank of China may implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the end of the third quarter, serving as a critical lever to boost consumption, stabilize investment, and stimulate domestic demand.