ANZ announced on Tuesday that it now expects Brent crude to end the year at $88 per barrel and remain above $90 for the rest of 2026. Previously, the bank had projected Brent prices near $80.

Analysts at ANZ stated in a research report that the upward revision reflects export disruptions, logistical constraints, and precautionary shutdowns in key oil-producing nations in the Persian Gulf. Even in areas where production capacity has not been physically damaged by conflict involving Iran, oil supply has decreased substantially. The bank estimates that current crude supply in the market has effectively fallen by approximately 10 million barrels per day compared to its January forecast.

Analysts noted, "The oil market no longer needs a worst-case escalation to support higher price levels," adding that even without further geopolitical risks, tightening supply-demand balances alone are sufficient to keep Brent prices near or above current levels.

ANZ cautioned that while some supply could return to the market if security conditions improve, any recovery is likely to be slow and uneven. The bank also indicated that between 1 million and 2 million barrels per day of production could face permanent or semi-permanent disruption due to damaged oilfields, deferred maintenance, and financial challenges.