In today's world, chaos seems unending—the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts Europe, conflicts in the Middle East flare up unpredictably, Trump’s tariff war drags on like a tedious soap opera, Europe’s rightward shift is followed by Japan’s Prime Minister meddling in Taiwan affairs, White House guards face attacks, and Hong Kong suddenly suffers a fire... Do these events relate to global stock markets? Will China’s stock market be affected by this "turbulent era"?

While few would dispute the impact of major events like Fed rate decisions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or Sino-Japanese relations on global markets, opinions diverge on whether they influence China’s stock market. Yet, like the butterfly effect, sensitive events clearly ripple through. For instance, Fed rate changes directly affect overseas capital’s pricing of RMB assets, with significant funds arbitraging between Hong Kong and the mainland. Similarly, Nvidia and Google’s chip rivalry shapes mainland investors’ sentiment toward semiconductor stocks, not to mention the cascading shocks from Trump’s tariff war.

But does every minor global event sway China’s market? Not necessarily—it hinges on the information transmission chain. Macro geopolitical-economic events disrupting global cycles inevitably impact all markets, including China’s. Meanwhile, seemingly small incidents triggering investor psychology shifts also matter. For example, U.S. lawsuits against Trump’s tariffs may not overturn his policies but add uncertainty; Japan’s Taiwan rhetoric won’t alter China’s sovereignty yet disrupts trade and supply chains; even the arrest of a White House staffer’s relative, seemingly trivial, reflects immigration policy tensions that sway certain investors. Hong Kong’s fire, though routine, sparks debates on safety and rescue protocols amid the Greater Bay Area’s development, influencing regional investor sentiment.

Would these events sway U.S., European, or Australian markets? The mechanisms vary by context. The U.S. market, dominated by "big capital," shrugs off minor noise, while "mid-sized capital" elsewhere reacts to smaller triggers. China’s market faces a unique paradox: its "big capital" remains weak, hesitant to stabilize the market’s backbone, and many institutions obsess over "news-driven trading," mirroring U.S. cues. This creates a perverse cycle—U.S. rallies leave China flat; U.S. dips trigger China’s plunges. Thus, scrutinizing macro and micro drivers for China’s market becomes critical.

Ultimately, China needs a more robust system for information dissemination and analysis. Major institutions must decode and broadcast financial data accurately, enabling informed decisions. Without their leadership, relying solely on regulators or amateur media will prolong market confusion.

How can China’s stock market rewrite history?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should proceed at their own risk.