BABA-W (09988) declined over 4% again, falling 4.06% to HK$156 per share at the time of writing, with trading volume reaching HK$20.43 billion. Goldman Sachs released a research report significantly raising Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast for fiscal years 2026-28 to 460 billion yuan. Analysts indicated that AI capital expenditure transformation is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations. Despite recent pullbacks due to profit-taking, the company's breakthrough progress in AI cloud computing capabilities and international expansion potential provide new upward momentum for the stock price. The firm expects international business to contribute one-quarter of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue by fiscal 2028. Goldman simultaneously raised its US and Hong Kong stock target prices by approximately 14% while maintaining a "Buy" rating.

Notably, Goldman Sachs analysts also expect that due to investments in instant commerce business (including food delivery), Alibaba's group EBITA for the September quarter will decline 80% year-over-year. The instant commerce business recorded losses of 11 billion yuan in the June quarter, which are expected to expand to 36 billion yuan in the September quarter. Goldman Sachs believes that competition in the instant commerce business will be a key variable.