According to a research report released by Morgan Stanley, despite ongoing trade tensions, China continues to deepen its position in global supply chains by increasing its share of value-added content in global imports and expanding exports to emerging markets.

The investment bank expects this trend to persist, driving China's share of the global export market from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030.

Morgan Stanley noted that despite the rise of protectionist measures, China's participation in global supply chains continues to deepen. Since 2017, China's share of global exports has increased by 2 percentage points. According to the bank's estimates, China's contribution to value-added content in global imports excluding China has also risen by 2 percentage points, with this growth broadly covering most manufacturing sectors.

The bank stated that China is at the forefront of emerging industries, leveraging innovation and proprietary technology to establish a dominant position. Thanks to its highly integrated domestic supply chain, China plays a critical role in supplying low-cost components and high-end capital goods.

As the bank previously emphasized, China's policymakers have already begun positioning for the next phase of the industrial cycle. As the world enters the era of Embodied AI, China has already established a dominant position in robotics and humanoid robots, and is working to apply embodied intelligence to industrial scenarios.

Morgan Stanley noted that since 2017, US tariffs and non-tariff measures have caused China's share of US imports to decline by 14 percentage points. However, the bank's estimates found that the value-added content from China in US imports has actually remained stable. In other words, the US is effectively importing goods from China indirectly.

Nevertheless, given that China's value-added share in imports from the rest of the world rose by 2 percentage points over the same period, the US has at least achieved stability in controlling the proportion of Chinese content in its imports.

Morgan Stanley indicated that for the rest of the world, particularly emerging market countries, their trade relationships with China are continuing to deepen. These countries not only rely on China to meet domestic demand but also depend on China to supply components and various inputs needed for expanding exports. For example, despite India's significant progress in electronics manufacturing, it still needs to import large quantities of intermediate goods and capital goods from China.

The bank believes that by focusing on high-growth industries, operating through integrated supply chains, possessing a financial system aligned with strategic objectives, emphasizing research and development and innovation, and having a vast pool of skilled talent, China is fully capable of further consolidating and deepening its position in global supply chains.

Morgan Stanley expects that by 2030, China's share of global exports will rise from the current 15% to 16.5%.