Allianz Investment's Chief Investment Officer for Multi-Asset, Gregor M.A. Hirt, expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its current policy stance and refrain from major adjustments at its March meeting. While the fundamental rationale supporting policy normalization and further interest rate hikes remains solid, the central bank may adopt a wait-and-see approach in this session, considering pending data releases and evolving geopolitical risks. A key focus will be whether BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provides any guidance on a potential April rate hike during his press conference. Recent commentary suggests growing confidence among Japanese authorities for such a move, particularly as the weak yen sees the USD/JPY pair testing the psychological 160 level again. To prevent further yen depreciation, the BOJ might need to raise rates earlier to stabilize the currency. However, two significant obstacles could cause hesitation. The first is geopolitical risk. Conflicts involving Iran pose a tangible stagflation risk: a sharp rise in energy prices could dampen economic growth and real incomes, making the BOJ cautious about tightening policy amid a potential growth slowdown. Consequently, markets will closely watch how the BOJ balances its stance on inflation versus economic growth under the threat of a potential energy shock. Secondly, important data for March is still pending. The final results of the "Shunto" wage negotiations and the key price adjustments Japanese firms will implement in the new fiscal year are not yet fully clear. As the BOJ will likely have a firmer grasp of this data by its April meeting, it may be reluctant to provide explicit guidance prematurely in March. Therefore, the BOJ is expected to retain policy flexibility. Governor Ueda could potentially support the yen by keeping the possibility of an April rate hike alive, accompanied by hawkish commentary. However, he may also simultaneously emphasize that policy remains data-dependent, preserving room to maneuver should external shocks materialize. In this environment, Allianz Investment maintains an optimistic outlook for Japanese equities. Although Japanese stocks are also susceptible to risks from an escalation of Middle East tensions, their structural drivers remain solid. Regarding the yen, the firm holds a neutral stance. Currently, short-term headwinds from rising energy prices are weighing on the yen and benefiting the US dollar. While there is a solid case for yen strength in the medium term, the strategic preference is to wait on the sidelines until these short-term factors dissipate. Finally, the long-held underweight view on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) is maintained. Although the market has priced in multiple future rate hikes, and news of Seiji Maehara potentially becoming prime minister is already reflected in prices, upside inflation risks from rising energy costs and ongoing uncertainty around government fiscal policy mean an adjustment to the underweight position is not currently being considered.