CITIC Securities has issued a research report assigning a "buy" rating to BABA-W (09988), considering Alibaba's outstanding capital advantages and expecting the formation of a duopoly competition pattern in the medium term. Relying on dual-mode development for full-category business, the firm anticipates that FY2026-FY2028 could contribute 1 trillion yuan in incremental GMV. The company emphasizes improving efficiency after scaling up, and with a clear trend of UE (unit economics) improvement, the firm expects the flash shopping business to contribute 18.3 billion yuan in steady-state profits. Under an optimistic valuation scenario, based on forward valuation discounting, the potential market cap increase could reach nearly 200 billion yuan in 2026.

The report states that since February 2025, three major platforms have upgraded their strategic layouts, entering the instant retail track through food delivery services. Food delivery business, as a high-frequency essential traffic entrance, can effectively drive local life services and e-commerce business, helping platforms secure commanding heights in future retail format competition. Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded with coordinated organizational structure adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits. After the launch of flash shopping, the effects of user acquisition and stickiness improvement have been significant. Category supply leverages e-commerce merchant advantages, forming differentiated competition in apparel, electronics, and beauty & personal care sectors, while delivery capacity is rapidly supplemented.