On September 5, 2025, at the morning opening, domestic futures main contracts exhibited more gains than losses. Coking coal rose nearly 2%, while rubber, methanol, and coke increased by over 1%. Pure benzene, butadiene rubber, and No. 20 rubber posted gains close to 1%. On the declining side, stainless steel (SS), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell by more than 1%.

Everbright Futures Analysis: On September 5, overnight international precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.91% and COMEX silver futures declining 1.77%, while SHFE gold dropped nearly 0.3%. The "mini non-farm" ADP data came in below expectations, reigniting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market pricing now shows a 97.4% probability of a September rate cut. However, the Fed's independence faces challenges as potential political intervention from the White House administration could trigger inflation rises, dollar depreciation, and capital market volatility, creating divisions within the Federal Reserve. Attention focuses on Friday's non-farm employment data.

The ADP data released on the evening of September 4 revealed risks of weakness in the U.S. employment market. U.S. August ADP employment increased by only 54,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating weak labor market performance. According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 reached 237,000, higher than market expectations. This further demonstrates that the U.S. labor market continues to cool, reinforcing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and consequently impacting the gold market. Markets are focused on the non-farm employment data to be released Friday at 20:30, with current expectations for August data at 75,000, slightly higher than the previous month's 73,000.