Market crowding has reached a historically high range. On the last trading day of May, while global markets continued to surge, the STAR Market and ChiNext indices plunged successively, with the STAR 50 Index falling sharply by 5% in a single day. Despite the daily fluctuations, the extreme divergence in the A-share market persists: Semiconductor-themed ETFs topped the gainers' list for the second consecutive month. The China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF (Huatai-PineBridge) surged 39.34% in May, while the STAR Semiconductor ETF (ChinaAMC) and the STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (Huatai-PineBridge) rose by 24.44% and 24.09%, respectively.

Conversely, resource-themed ETFs, which previously benefited from the "Strait of Hormuz blockade" narrative, faced significant reversals: The Petrochemical ETF and the Chemical ETF retreated by 14% monthly, while the Agriculture ETF fell 13% over the same period. The Matthew effect of "the strong getting stronger, the weak weaker" is intensifying.

Extending the timeline to January-May, the China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF (Huatai-PineBridge) has soared 132% year-to-date, while the STAR Semiconductor ETF (ChinaAMC) and the STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (Penghua) have gained 62% over the same period. In contrast, the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hong Kong Connect Internet ETF have seen their year-to-date losses widen to 30% and 29%, respectively.

The underlying logic is clear and realistic: amid weak domestic demand recovery, the hard-tech sector has become a global consensus for capital allocation. However, the best-performing sectors have not attracted significant capital inflows. In May, the ETF market overall experienced a substantial net outflow of 3296 billion yuan. The top fund attractors were not technology or growth sectors but monetary and bond indices—the Monetary Index ETF, the Shanghai Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF, and the AAA STAR Bond ETF saw inflows of 98 billion, 83 billion, and 68 billion yuan, respectively.

Among the top three ETFs by fund inflows in May, two were monetary ETFs, with the Communication ETF (Guotai) ranking first in net inflows. Broad-based ETFs, including the CSI 300 ETF (Huatai-PineBridge), the CSI 300 ETF (E Fund), the SSE 50 ETF (ChinaAMC), the CSI 300 ETF (Harvest), the CSI 500 ETF (Southern), and the CSI 300 ETF (ChinaAMC), collectively saw outflows of 1936 billion yuan in May.

Looking at the first five months of the year, two previously popular indices—SGE Gold 9999 and the Hang Seng Tech Index—also showed signs of weakening. Both recorded net inflows exceeding 400 billion yuan year-to-date but experienced net outflows of 80 billion yuan each in May.

Specifically, among ETF products, the top two by net inflows this year are again bond ETFs—the Urban Investment Bond ETF (HFT) and the Short-Term Financing Bond ETF (HFT). Additionally, the Grid Equipment ETF (ChinaAMC), the Satellite ETF (Yongying), and the Communication ETF (Guotai) each saw net inflows exceeding 100 billion yuan over the same period.

On the other hand, broad-based ETFs continued to face significant capital outflows, with the CSI 300 ETF, the SSE 50 ETF (ChinaAMC), and the CSI 500 ETF leading the outflows.

Is this due to insufficient ammunition, or is the "light" from neighboring tech stocks too dazzling? The answer might be: the light is too bright, but the path is too crowded. Currently, global stock markets are experiencing an epic structural rally, with multiple indicators reaching historically rare levels. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index has surged 101% over the past five months, surpassing the peak gains of the bubble economy in the 1980s and 1990s. The S&P 500 Index has posted nine consecutive weekly gains, setting a rare streak not seen in over 40 years.

The characteristics of the A-share market are particularly pronounced. Since May, the trading volume of the top 5% of A-share stocks by turnover has consistently accounted for around 44% of the total, approaching the historical adjustment threshold of 45%. Historically, whenever this figure exceeds 45%, group rallies often reverse. This is like a pendulum hanging overhead—the closer it gets to 45%, the more unsettling it becomes.

Every epic rally reaches its peak amid "rising anxiety." Today, the technology sector faces the ultimate test of crowding—ahead lies the grand narrative of AI illuminating the future, while in reality, capital has begun to enter a phase of divergent博弈.