Gold Shows Volatile Upward Movement While Crude Oil Weakens - Latest Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations

Deep News
08/27

**Gold Market Trend Analysis:**

On August 27th, gold market news analysis: During early Asian trading on Wednesday, spot gold traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $3,390.85 per ounce. On Tuesday (August 26th), U.S. President Trump suddenly announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, citing "inappropriate conduct" in mortgage applications. This move not only directly challenged the Federal Reserve's independence but also instantly ignited market risk-aversion sentiment. Gold prices surged in response to their highest level in over two weeks, with spot gold rising 0.83% in a single day to close at $3,393.43 per ounce, marking the highest closing price in nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 0.22%, the Treasury yield curve steepened, and market expectations for a September rate cut rose to over 87%. This collision between politics and finance is pushing gold to the forefront of a new bull market wave.

**Gold Technical Analysis:** We maintain a medium-term bearish outlook on gold, with four consecutive monthly candlesticks showing upper shadows forming the basis for bearish sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, tariffs have been fully priced in, and even new tariffs are unlikely to have the same impact as during Trump's initial return to the White House. The influence of global geopolitical situations is also significantly diminished, as these are mostly minor conflicts without substantial participation from major powers. Regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, we have repeatedly mentioned that this has been speculated for two years, with the "boy who cried wolf" story continuing to repeat, and during the Trump era, the Fed's presence was already weak.

Therefore, this forms the underlying logic for our medium-term bearish view on gold. We expect gold to gradually break below the 3120-3268 support line and ultimately fall below 3268 and 3245, testing the 3150-3120 area, with the ultimate target returning to the pre-tariff rally starting point of 3000-2950 area. However, in the current short to medium term, it's difficult to determine whether gold will break above the 3400-3410 resistance area for one more new high before declining, or whether it will be suppressed below 3400-3410 and directly enter a sweeping decline. Attention should be paid to this month's monthly closing, which has certain reference significance for medium-term trends.

For today's early trading, regarding resistance levels, focus on the 3405-3410 area pressure in the short term. Therefore, going forward, gold is likely to trend bullish with volatility above 3365, with bulls targeting 3400-3410 and the upper edge of the daily triangle resistance. Whether it breaks upward will determine how far the bullish counterattack can go. Operationally, go long around 3386 in early trading, with conservative long positions at 3380-3382 support area; for short positions, look for opportunities around 3410-3415 area. Overall, today's short-term gold trading strategy should focus primarily on buying dips on pullbacks, with selling rallies as secondary approach. Focus on 3410-3420 resistance above and 3370-3360 support below in the short term.

**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**

**Oil Market News Analysis:** WTI crude oil is trading around $63.44 per barrel. U.S. oil fell more than 2% on Tuesday, with Indian exports to the U.S. potentially facing tariffs as high as 50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching developments regarding U.S. tariffs, the Ukraine war, and potential disruptions to Russian oil supplies. Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures settling down 2.3% at $67.22 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures settled down approximately 2.4% at $63.25 per barrel. Investors are monitoring developments regarding U.S. tariffs, the Ukraine war, and potential Russian oil supply disruptions. Monday's oil price increase was mainly due to supply risks following Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and potential further U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Meanwhile, Indian exports to the U.S. could face tariffs as high as 50%, representing one of the highest tariffs imposed by Washington. This follows Trump's announcement of additional tariffs as punishment for New Delhi's increased purchases of Russian oil.

**Oil Technical Analysis:** Oil is currently forming a small rounded bottom pattern on the daily chart, with K-line breaking through previous resistance zones and maintaining good oscillating upward momentum along short-term moving averages. Short-term focus is on resistance around the 65 area. On the 4-hour timeframe, K-line has consecutively pulled back and broken below short-term moving averages, suggesting likely further adjustment in the short term. Watch for potential slight pullback corrections followed by secondary rallies during the day. Oil trends are more apparent compared to gold, offering certain continuation opportunities for both long and short positions. Last week's secondary bottom at 61.8 horizontal consolidation lower rail provided precise long opportunities, and the rally opportunity has now completed. We expect topside short opportunities to form, and oil is no longer viewed bullishly. Direct short position at 64.6 in early trading today, with 64 dollars serving as today's long-short watershed. This level represents the short-term wave rally low point from Monday's U.S. session large bullish candlestick. A break below this level would likely trigger accelerated decline today, while holding above would provide repeated entry opportunities at the top. This week oil is expected to begin a significant decline - we favor the bearish side! Overall, today's oil trading strategy recommends focusing primarily on selling rallies, with buying dips as secondary approach. Watch for 65.0-66.0 resistance above and 62.0-61.0 support below in the short term.

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