Gold price pullback stirs retail demand, institutions see sector logic shifting to peak-season recovery

Deep News
昨天

International gold prices kept sliding through September, and combined with the long double-holiday period, demand from wedding and self-reward purchases was unleashed, visibly heating up the gold retail market.

Traffic increased at the Shenzhen Shuibei gold and jewelry market, with some popular styles running out of stock.

On September 28, COMEX gold futures prices fell below US$4,200 per ounce, with a single-day drop of more than 3%.

Affected by this, domestic gold jewelry listed prices were lowered accordingly, and the listed price of jewelry gold in Shenzhen Shuibei fell back to 1,068 yuan per gram.

The listed prices of pure gold at major domestic gold jewelry brands fell noticeably from their August highs. On September 29, the pure gold price of Lao Feng Xiang was 1,248 yuan per gram, down 100 yuan per gram from a month earlier; the pure gold price of Chow Tai Fook was 1,241 yuan per gram, down 102 yuan per gram from a month earlier.

Concentrated price adjustments by brands also kicked off gold promotions for the double holidays, with stores using price advantages to roll out various discounts and drive holiday consumption.

These included direct per-gram reductions, full-amount discounts, and waiving depreciation fees for trading old gold for new.

Among them, Caibai Jewelry launched an exclusive autumn event, using tiered full-reduction offers to cover different budgets; the Wangfujing Zhonghuan store of Laopu Gold offered 100 yuan off for every 1,000 yuan spent in-store from September 19 to 27, and shoppers could also receive 10 times the mall points.

The downward trend in gold prices overlapped with the long-holiday consumption peak, prompting consumers who had previously stayed on the sidelines to start buying.

At the Shuibei market, customers gathered in front of counters at many brand stores to choose gold jewelry.

Some residents said they came before marriage to buy the five gold items, including dragon-and-phoenix bracelets, necklace sets, and matching rings, because gold prices had recently pulled back and it was a suitable time to buy.

In addition to rigid-demand products such as the three gold items and five gold items for marriage, younger consumers' demand for self-reward gold purchases also continued to be released.

At present, lightweight pure gold pendants, bracelets, accessories, and other small gold jewelry items are selling especially well, becoming a highlight of the market.

Merchants in the Shuibei market reported that store traffic had increased noticeably recently, wedding-related rigid-demand customers were decisive in placing orders, restocking frequency had accelerated compared with last month, and some best-selling styles were even out of stock.

To stimulate consumption, many brands rolled out discounts such as reduced processing fees.

In the capital market, institutions judged that the sector's investment logic is further shifting from gold price elasticity to operational alpha plus peak-season recovery, with preference for companies that can continuously obtain channel resources, improve store efficiency, and secure brand premiums through product upgrades.

Huachuang Securities analyzed that the first half of the year had already verified that weak industry demand does not mean all companies' performance comes under pressure at the same time, and enterprises with strong brand momentum and channel quality can still achieve revenue and profit growth; at the same time, the traditional franchise model is still in a adjustment phase, and franchisees' profitability, store clearance progress, and willingness to restock will determine the performance inflection point of related companies.

In the third and fourth quarters, if terminal consumption warms marginally, companies with higher operational quality are expected to be the first to show profit elasticity, while leaders whose channel adjustments are nearing an end have opportunities for a turnaround from a low base.

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