The US employment market growth is slowing, but its foundation may be weaker than previously believed.

Key Points

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down employment growth estimates by 911,000 jobs for the period from March 2024 to March 2025. This revision offsets approximately half of the job growth data for the same period, indicating that the employment market's weakness far exceeds previous understanding. The report does not mention the impact of President Donald Trump's policies on the economy, as he was not in office for most of the time period covered by the revision.

It turns out that the weakness in the US employment market exceeds previous understanding.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a preliminary annual revision report on employment data Tuesday, stating that the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ending in March 2025. Although this revision only reduces the estimated US workforce size by 0.6%, it means that the number of new jobs created during this period was only about half of what the bureau published in its monthly employment reports.

While this routine revision does not reflect current labor market conditions, the downward revision in employment data may intensify concerns that "the job market is struggling."

Under the dual pressure of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's high interest rates, job growth is continuously weakening. This could pressure the Federal Reserve to lower key interest rates to reduce borrowing costs and support the job market.

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, wrote in commentary: "Labor market momentum is further declining from a foundation that was weaker than initially understood, which reinforces expectations for substantial rate cuts."

This revision is part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' routine process, which has been under scrutiny during the Trump administration. Trump has criticized the accuracy of the Bureau's data and dismissed the Bureau's director after employment creation data suffered significant downward revisions last month.

As more comprehensive hiring and firing information becomes available, the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes multiple revisions to employment market reports. The Bureau's preliminary monthly employment reports, typically released at the beginning of the following month, are based on surveys of 161,000 businesses.

These preliminary reports undergo two revisions in the subsequent two months due to late survey submissions from businesses. Subsequently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts an additional annual revision incorporating data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which covers 95% of workers.

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages revision results are scheduled to be finalized in September, and many economists expect the final downward revision to be smaller than the preliminary estimate released Tuesday.

Data: Speed vs. Accuracy – You Can't Have Both

This revision highlights a problem: when government statistical agencies release monthly data on important economic trends such as job growth and inflation, they often must make a compromise – the earlier the data is released, the lower its accuracy inevitably becomes.

However, for policymakers, including Federal Reserve policymakers, obtaining data as early as possible is crucial. Federal Reserve policymakers need to meet regularly to formulate key interest rate policies to achieve the goals of "controlling inflation and maintaining high employment."

Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at financial platform NerdWallet, commented: "For many economic datasets, there is a tradeoff between precision and timeliness. With employment data, for example, we accept rough estimates to get frequent monthly data. This high-frequency data helps create more effective monetary policy, among other uses."

The downward revision data released Tuesday provides a clearer understanding of the job market's health but does not mention the impact of President Donald Trump's economic policies on job growth – during the time period covered by the revision, Trump only took office at the end, and his controversial import tariffs had just begun implementation.

If the final revision data released in February shows that former President Joe Biden experienced any monthly job losses during his term, it would undoubtedly damage his reputation: currently, Biden appears to be the only president in US history to achieve "uninterrupted monthly job growth" during his tenure.