The first preview of a brokerage's half-year results for the A-share market has been released.
On the evening of July 3rd, Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. issued its 2026 interim performance forecast. According to the announcement, for the first half of 2026, Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.003 billion to 20.511 billion yuan. The company also anticipates a non-GAAP net profit between 19.249 billion and 19.757 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 164% to 171%. This performance sets a new record high for the company's half-yearly results.
For the second quarter of 2026 specifically, Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. projects a non-GAAP net profit ranging from 13.538 billion to 14.046 billion yuan. This marks a quarter-on-quarter growth of 137% to 146% compared to the first quarter of 2026, also establishing a new historical high for the company's quarterly performance.
The primary reasons cited for the substantial profit increase are the company's coordinated efforts in integration, synergy, and deepening reforms during the first half of 2026. Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. stated it has focused on building a comprehensive advantage across the "investment + investment banking + investment research" chain to serve new quality productive forces. This strategy aims to continuously enhance its comprehensive financial service capabilities and accelerate the release of benefits from its integration efforts. Consequently, revenues from wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading services, and investment management businesses saw significant year-on-year growth. The record operating performance for the period lays a solid foundation for accelerating the development of a first-class investment bank with international competitiveness and market leadership.
Currently, non-bank financial analysts widely anticipate strong growth in brokerage firms' half-year reports. Zhao Ran, Chief Analyst of Non-Bank Finance and Fintech at CITIC Securities, believes the brokerage sector is currently in a window of resonance characterized by "high profit growth, low valuations, and accelerating industry trends." On the performance front, robust interim results and the realization of investment banking projects provide continuous validation. Regarding industry trends, three major developments—consolidation in the wealth management business landscape, empowerment through technology innovation investment banking, and accelerated expansion of international operations—are solidifying the medium to long-term growth trajectory. From a valuation perspective, the sector's price-to-book ratio remains at a historically low percentile, offering ample safety margin. Against the backdrop of rising trading concentration in the tech sector and capital rotation from high to low valuations, the brokerage sector's risk-reward profile remains attractive.
Zhang Yang, a non-bank financial analyst at Central China Securities, noted that since mid-June, the brokerage sector has shown a significant shift from its previous sustained weakness to strength, with clear signs of capital returning. This has effectively restored market confidence. Subsequently, the sector is expected to transition from a phase of catch-up gains to a pattern of relatively strong and volatile recovery. With increasing market attention, it has the potential to gradually recoup its year-to-date losses.
In terms of stock performance, Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has experienced an upward trend since late May. As of July 3rd, its cumulative increase reached 30%, with its latest market capitalization approaching 320 billion yuan.