Recent A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have maintained strong overall performance, particularly with the Hang Seng Index breaking through the 26,000-point integer threshold, accelerating its upward momentum. Meanwhile, A-shares have entered a period of consolidation after their earlier rapid advance. However, since this round of market movement in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is supported by policy backing and driven by capital flows, this slow bull and long bull market trend may continue for an extended period rather than being a short-term rally. Even if adjustments occur, they are likely to be short-term with relatively modest magnitude.

Currently, off-market capital continues to show strong willingness to enter the market. Recently, "daylight funds" have emerged - equity funds that sell out completely within a single day. Of course, current fundraising limits remain around 10 to 5 billion yuan, with no single-day sales exceeding 10 billion yuan yet. This indicates that the process of household savings entering the market through fund purchases has begun, validating my prediction in the "Ten Predictions for 2025" released at the end of last year - that household savings would massively shift toward capital markets, bringing continuous incremental funding to the market. On the other hand, this also suggests that the current market rally may still be in its early stages, not yet reaching the mid-to-late phase. Generally, in the mid-to-late stages of market rallies, single-day sales often exceed 10 billion yuan, while currently only individual funds are experiencing the "daylight fund" phenomenon, reflecting insufficient investment opportunities and confidence over the past few years. As household deposit rates continue to decline, with major banks' one-year deposit rates falling below 1%, many investors seek higher-yield products, and the strengthening capital markets are attracting accelerated inflows of savings. Whether in A-shares or Hong Kong stocks, dividend yields of some quality stocks have exceeded most bond yields, offering strong investment value propositions. Additionally, overall valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remain at relatively low levels, continuously increasing their attractiveness to capital.

This round of market rally has started well, and I hope all sectors of society will actively nurture it and jointly promote the slow bull and long bull market to go further. Compared to the fast bull and mad bull market of 2015, this round of market movement is expected to become a slow bull and long bull market. On one hand, regulators strictly limit off-exchange financing to prevent excessive leverage that could cause overly rapid market rises; on the other hand, many investors have learned lessons from ten years ago and dare not over-leverage, currently mainly using on-exchange margin trading with leverage not exceeding two times. Recently, margin trading balances have exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, reaching historic highs and surpassing the peak from ten years ago. However, since current total market capitalization is much higher than then, the ratio of margin trading balance to circulating market value remains low at less than 3%, compared to approximately 4.2% at the market peak ten years ago. Moreover, there is currently no off-exchange financing, keeping overall leverage ratios within controllable ranges. I recommend investors approach this round of market movement with medium to long-term goals and avoid casual leverage. Even on-exchange margin trading carries risks, especially during sharp market declines. Once leverage is used, psychological balance can easily be disrupted, and even when optimistic about held stocks, forced selling during sharp drops may cause significant losses. If declines are too severe, forced liquidation risks may arise, so I advise investors to use leverage cautiously. I hope this round of market movement develops into a slow bull and long bull market rather than a fast bull and mad bull market. Fast bull and mad bull markets may seem like celebrations during rises, but often leave investors with heavy losses or even total losses during declines, while slow bull and long bull markets are more conducive to relatively stable returns, providing more time to research quality stocks and funds, promoting steady wealth growth.

Currently, US stocks remain at historic highs with high valuations. Although markets have bet on extremely high probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, providing support for US stock trends, high valuations mean rate cut expectations may already be reflected in earlier gains and may not bring strong stimulus. Global capital is undergoing rebalancing, with some funds flowing out of US stocks toward other major capital markets. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as valuation depressions among global major capital markets, possess strong allocation value, attracting substantial foreign capital inflows. Since the second half of last year, foreign capital has continuously flowed into Hong Kong stocks; in the first half of this year, foreign capital inflows into A-shares exceeded $10 billion, with acceleration expected in the second half.

Recently released US August non-farm employment data fell far short of expectations, while August US CPI growth was 2.9%, remaining relatively controllable. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes it's time to adjust monetary policy, with expectations of one rate cut in September and possible additional cuts in October and December, potentially three cuts this year. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate may decline from the current high of 4.25%-4.5% to approximately 3.5%, helping boost employment recovery. As the global central bank, Federal Reserve rate cuts will trigger more central banks to follow, and China's central bank is also expected to support economic recovery through rate and reserve requirement cuts, boosting real estate and stock market performance. Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support for gold prices. Recently, international gold prices reached new historic highs, breaking through $2,600 per ounce, mainly influenced by strengthened rate cut expectations. In my "Ten Predictions for 2025," I proposed that the long-term upward trend of international gold prices would not change, with the underlying factor being questioned US dollar credibility and excessive dollar supply, inevitably driving up dollar-denominated gold prices over the long term. Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $3,000 per ounce, consistent with my view. Although short-term rapid gold price increases may trigger adjustments, medium to long-term trends are difficult to change. I have consistently recommended allocating approximately 20% of investment portfolios to gold-related assets, including physical gold, paper gold, gold ETFs, and gold stocks, and this strategy has proven very effective.

Regarding Hong Kong stocks, investors should focus on two directions: first, low-valuation high-dividend sectors that meet needs for stable returns; second, technology growth sectors represented by technological innovation and internet companies, attractive to investors seeking high growth. During market adjustments, low-valuation high-dividend sectors often provide excess returns and even rise against trends, particularly banking and power industries with high dividend rates, which are more favored by large capital. Technology growth stocks are often driven by expectations and have not yet released performance, with relatively high P/E ratios. Whether valuations are excessive depends on future ability to achieve technological breakthroughs and release performance. If breakthroughs are achieved and companies become industry leaders, even current valuation levels may not be high; if unable to breakthrough and remaining conceptual speculation, risks are significant. Investors need to focus on examining core competitiveness and technological breakthrough capabilities of technology growth stocks. For high P/E technology stocks such as innovative pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, and chip semiconductors, valuations must be viewed with long-term perspective, not judged solely on current performance-based P/E ratios.

From a macroeconomic policy perspective, the fourth quarter is still expected to introduce growth-stabilizing policies to boost consumption, drive investment, and improve economic data. Current capital market strength has laid the foundation for consumption and investment confidence. Next steps may see more active fiscal policy and continued moderately loose monetary policy. These growth-stabilizing policies are expected to help real estate markets stabilize and consolidate stock market development momentum, playing important roles. I am eagerly watching, hoping for more growth-stabilizing policies to be implemented in the fourth quarter, while previously implemented policies may gradually show effects.

MACD golden cross signals have formed, these stocks show good upward momentum!