The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has quickly become a primary source of uncertainty for business operations, impacting key decisions such as hiring, pricing, and capital expenditures. According to the report, many companies expressed concerns during March about potential cost increases, shifts in demand, and broader macroeconomic effects stemming from the conflict. As a result, numerous firms have adopted a "wait-and-see" approach, delaying expansion plans. The Beige Book noted, "The conflict has emerged as a major uncertainty, leading businesses to exercise greater caution in decisions related to hiring, pricing, and investment."

Regionally, the impact of the conflict has been observed across multiple sectors. Businesses in the Northeast reported to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that energy costs have risen noticeably, with increased fuel surcharges and higher prices for transportation and agricultural raw materials. Midwestern firms informed the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that certain chemical supplies could face shortages. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis highlighted increased volatility in the agricultural sector, affecting sales of farming equipment and leading to a sharp rise in fertilizer costs.

The Beige Book also shed light on structural challenges facing the economy. Although overall layoffs remain limited, businesses have significantly reduced their hiring intentions, with many focusing on replacing departing employees rather than expanding their workforce. This trend aligns with recent data suggesting the U.S. labor market is entering a phase characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs." A business representative told the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis that while the company had initially planned to increase hiring, it has now postponed recruitment due to heightened economic volatility.

Meanwhile, consumer behavior has shown signs of divergence. Persistent above-target inflation has strained household budgets, making consumers more sensitive to price increases. Nationwide, demand at food banks and social service organizations has been rising. Retailers are also feeling the pressure. A jeweler in Williamsburg, Virginia, reported to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond that consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms to find lower prices, noting, "If they can save a dollar and get free shipping, they’ll shop online. This has been the worst year for business so far."

Although the U.S. economy has previously demonstrated resilience amid multiple risks, the Beige Book emphasized that the ongoing conflict is adding new uncertainties, weighing on business confidence and economic activity.