COMEX gold futures gave up some gains on Monday after hitting an intraday high of $5,400 per ounce. As the Middle East conflict expands, investors are turning to safe-haven assets, driving gold prices higher.
Earlier in the session, spot gold reached a peak of $5,419.36 per ounce but then quickly fell nearly $150 to a low of $5,260.44.
Other precious metals also saw broad declines on Monday: silver futures dropped 3%, though they remain up 17% year-to-date. Palladium and platinum also retreated amid a stronger U.S. dollar, but both have still posted positive returns for the year.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase anticipate that gold could see a short-term "risk premium" surge of 5% to 10% following weekend strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which triggered regional retaliation.
However, analysts noted that such geopolitically driven price spikes tend to be sharp but often short-lived.
They indicated that if tensions ease, or if a decline in U.S. stocks forces investors to sell assets to cover losses and raise cash, the rally in gold could reverse. U.S. stock markets opened lower on Monday.
Despite near-term volatility risks, JPMorgan still forecasts that demand from central banks and investors will ultimately push gold prices to $6,300 by the end of 2026.
Patrick Jones of JPMorgan wrote, "The near-term rise in geopolitical risk premiums clearly aligns with our bullish outlook for gold, but this is far from the only reason for our structural optimism."
He added that if the conflict persists, it could further highlight long-term drivers of gold prices, such as rising fiscal deficits and the risk of a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, particularly if oil prices remain elevated.
As of Monday, gold was trading about $200 below the all-time high set in January. After eight consecutive months of gains, the metal has advanced 21% year-to-date. The strength in gold has been supported by continued central bank purchases, lower interest rates, and increased demand amid a weaker U.S. dollar.
Over the weekend, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted, "With few clear exceptions, 2026 looks like an accelerated version of 2025."