Goldman Sachs: AI Disruption Intensifies Debate Over Equity Valuations

Deep News
04/28

Goldman Sachs strategists state that the disruptive risks introduced by artificial intelligence (AI) are intensifying the debate surrounding stock valuations. A team led by Ryan Hammond wrote in a report on Monday that the widely perceived threat from AI's disruptive impact is heightening investor focus on the 'terminal value' of many equities. Their analysis, based on a 10-year dividend discount model, indicates that the terminal value of the S&P 500 accounts for approximately 75% of its current equity value, nearing its highest level in 25 years. The valuation of high-growth companies is "particularly sensitive" to changes in long-term prospects, with a 1 percentage point change in the long-term growth rate leading to a 15% decrease in current corporate value. However, the same shift in expectations would cause the value of high-growth stocks to change by 29%, while the value of low-growth stocks would change by only 10%. Hammond pointed to price declines in software stocks and other "asset-light" industries. For these stocks, whose value is heavily concentrated in the distant future, the recent significant price drops contrast sharply with robust recent earnings, highlighting the critical importance of long-term growth prospects. Company executives should "prioritize discussions about long-term prospects," while noting that recent earnings calls show "only 5% of S&P 500 constituent companies discussed financial metrics beyond five years," with these companies primarily concentrated in the utilities and real estate sectors.

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