Before the long holiday arrives, the "locks" are already on, with over a hundred funds imposing purchase restrictions in advance. Ahead of the National Day holiday, investors hoping to move idle cash into money market funds or short- and medium-term bond funds before the break to earn a few days of coupon interest will likely encounter a somewhat disappointing "purchase restriction" notice: subscription channels have narrowed or even shut entirely. Wind data shows that as of September 29, since September 21, approximately 180 funds have adjusted their purchase limits or even suspended subscriptions, mainly money market funds, bond funds, and interbank negotiable certificate index funds, with most set to resume normal operations precisely on the first trading day after the holiday. Behind this seemingly "turn-away" move lies fund companies' routine liquidity management practices. Moreover, against the backdrop of cautious pre-holiday sentiment in A-shares and overall market consolidation, the door to fourth-quarter market opportunities will gradually open. How should investors position themselves next? Yang Gang, chief economist at Golden Eagle Fund, told Yicai that the pre-holiday decline in A-shares may be mainly driven by trading factors, and the market has already priced in many negative factors such as geopolitics, oil prices, and high interest rates. A post-holiday market rebound may still be worth anticipating, and patient dip-buying at present could bring unexpected surprises.

Locks on before the long holiday arrives

Ahead of the National Day holiday, the public fund market has once again ushered in a wave of密集 pre-holiday purchase restrictions, with a large number of low-risk fixed-income products adjusting their subscription and redemption rules in a concentrated manner. On September 29, Tianhong Youli Short Bond announced that starting September 30, it would suspend acceptance of subscription applications from institutional investors exceeding 10,000 yuan per transaction, while individual investors' single-day subscription per account shall not exceed 100,000 yuan. Meanwhile, starting October 8, normal subscriptions for individual investors will resume, and the purchase limit for institutional investors will be relaxed to 10 million yuan. This round of purchase restrictions is not an isolated case. In addition to bond fund products, many money market funds and interbank negotiable certificate funds have also launched pre-holiday purchase restrictions. For instance, Chang'an Money Market Fund set its subscription cap at 10,000 yuan starting September 29, while Pengyang Cash Profit's Class A and B shares imposed a 1 million yuan limit starting September 30. ICBC Xijin Money Market Fund, CITIC Prudential Interbank Negotiable Certificate Index 7-Day Holding, and BOC Interbank Negotiable Certificate Index 7-Day Holding are among many other products that have also initiated pre-holiday quota controls. These products all plan to resume business on October 8, either restoring original limits or significantly relaxing single-day caps. Notably, the pre-holiday purchase restriction wave has also spread to some equity products. Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Stock Connect Quantitative also imposed a 1,000 yuan limit starting September 29, to be restored on October 8. BOC Hong Kong Stock Connect Advantage Growth, BOC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index, and BOC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index also had related restrictions before the holiday. In this regard, a fund professional with relevant business experience told Yicai that this move is likewise a routine liquidity management measure, mainly to prevent short-term capital from materially diluting the interests of existing holders during the time window when Hong Kong Stock Connect trading arrangements differ from those of A-shares. In addition to tightened quotas, some products have directly suspended subscription business. For example, Changsheng Anxin Short and Medium Bond Fund suspended subscription, conversion-in, and regular fixed-amount investment business for all shares starting September 29. Since the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and the National Day holiday are close together, some products had already disclosed pre-holiday purchase restriction arrangements before the Mid-Autumn holiday. For instance, Jiangxin Zengli Money Market Fund issued an announcement on September 21, implementing trading restrictions during two periods: September 23-27 and September 29-October 7, while GF Jingning Pure Bond also announced its pre-holiday purchase restriction arrangements in advance on September 24. Wind data shows that as of September 29, since September 21, at least 105 fund products (counting only initial funds, the same below) have adjusted from open subscription to suspended large-amount subscriptions, while 23 products have directly "closed their doors" from suspended large-amount subscriptions. Product types include money market funds, interbank negotiable certificate indices, and short-term bonds among other low-risk products, with bond funds accounting for over 90%, making them the absolute main force in this purchase restriction wave. At the same time, 52 funds that were already in a purchase-restricted state further tightened their quotas before the holiday, with purchase thresholds set between 0.01 million yuan and 10 million yuan, compared to the previous range of 100,000 yuan to 100 million yuan. Although the purchase restriction details vary among different fund companies, most will also restore original limits on the first trading day after the holiday (October 8). At this point, the number of affected products involved is approximately 180.

Pre-holiday purchase restrictions become an industry convention

"Closing the door" before the holiday and "opening the door" after the holiday — why has this operation become a routine management action for the industry before long holidays? Looking through various fund announcements, the core wording all points to "ensuring the stable operation of the fund and protecting the interests of fund share holders." Behind this nearly standardized expression lies fund companies' attention to liquidity risk and, to a certain extent, their protection of the interests of existing investors. "This situation is more common in money market funds and bond funds, to prevent large amounts of capital from diluting holiday returns," explained an asset management professional. During holidays, bonds also generate coupon income. If large capital inflows occur but fund managers fail to allocate assets in time, it will lead to idle funds and dilute the returns of original holders. For ordinary investors, this pre-holiday "gate closure" also brings practical reminders. A marketing professional at a Shanghai-based fund company gave an example: interest generated by bonds held in bond funds is accrued according to relevant rules and reflected in the fund's net asset value. If a valid subscription application is submitted before 15:00 on September 30, the subscription shares are typically calculated based on that day's fund share net value; interest income generated by bonds held during the holiday will also be reflected in subsequent fund net values. However, holiday coupon interest is only a "bonus" for the first-day post-holiday net value, not a "deciding factor." He also reminded that "including coupon interest during holidays" does not equal a certain increase in net value. Bond fund net values will still fluctuate with the prices of the bonds held, and investors are advised to make choices based on their own risk tolerance and fund usage timelines. In addition to return protection, preventing liquidity shocks before and after holidays is another core reason for fund purchase restrictions. The aforementioned asset management professional added that before and after holidays, capital tends to "flow in and out in large amounts." If a fund encounters concentrated redemptions after the holiday, fund managers may be forced to sell assets, affecting returns. Therefore, choosing to "close the door" early before the holiday to restrict potentially entering capital avoids large subscriptions adversely affecting existing investors. Meanwhile, from the perspective of capital flows, demand for稳健 allocations has been rising this year. Wind data shows that as of September 29, the total net asset value of bond funds reached 12.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.38 trillion yuan from the end of last year, a growth rate of 12.41%. Industry insiders believe that against the backdrop of limited overall adjustment space in the bond market, combined with rising holiday risk-aversion sentiment, the allocation appeal of low-volatility fixed-income products will continue to be prominent.

How to face the fourth-quarter market

As the National Day holiday approaches, the third-quarter A-share market is about to draw to a close. As of the close on September 29, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% to 3,830.45 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up 0.34% and 0.09% respectively, narrowing their year-to-date declines to 3.49%, 4.61%, and 1.89% respectively. The market is currently in a震荡 adjustment heading into the fourth quarter. At this critical juncture of style rotation and mainline switching, how to grasp investment threads and proactively position in core directions has become a focus for investors. Especially before the National Day holiday, market trading has become sluggish, with capital attitudes clearly leaning defensive. "The current cautious sentiment in the market is mainly due to multiple factors," Yang Gang told Yicai. The A-share market has actually not fully emerged from the shadow of the July sell-off. Leveraged capital that quickly exited due to the decline has not significantly returned after the market stabilized, incremental capital has been slow to enter, and trading volume has remained at a low level, leaving rebounds without effective support and allowing the market to gradually digest earlier pressure through weak consolidation and rapid rotation. Yang Gang added that although overseas markets have seen strong rebounds, recent hot spots have not yet formed effective mapping and diffusion on a larger scale. For A-shares, it is difficult to find a trading mainline with rallying power that can drive both sentiment and capital resonance, leaving on-market capital without a clear direction of attack. Additionally, uncertainty brought by the approaching long holiday is significantly suppressing risk appetite. "In the three trading days before the holiday, the A-share market is more likely to maintain a defensive posture, risk appetite is still difficult to systematically lift, and investors may generally prefer to wait for holiday data to become clearer before making directional choices." In his view, before and after the long holiday, short-term attention could be paid to oversold rebounds in technology, while the medium-term style could continue the barbell strategy. Wang Li, senior macro strategy researcher at Great Wall Fund, holds a similar view. He analyzed that current overseas risks are generally relatively controllable, and earlier panic selling may bring better short-term allocation opportunities. Recently, the broader market has generally shown a range-bound pattern of "a ceiling above and a floor below," but as short-term external risk shocks are gradually priced in and peak, a market stabilization and rebound is worth anticipating. "Combined with the holiday perspective, the adjustment is more dominated by trading and seasonal factors," Wang Li said. The Mid-Autumn Festival has passed and National Day is imminent, leaving few trading days this week. Institutional quarter-end assessments, risk-averse position reductions, and capital观望 are overlapping. Historically, pre-holiday periods often see shrinking volume and adjustment, bottoming near the holiday, followed by recovery after post-holiday volume replenishment, a relatively stable pattern. He believes the current situation is more like pre-holiday consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Direction still depends on overseas variables during the holiday, such as US Treasury yields, oil prices, geopolitics, and overseas tech stocks, as well as whether post-holiday volume can recover. "In the short term, shrinking-volume consolidation and high-low switching may continue. If post-holiday volume recovers and external conditions do not tighten further, a repair window is worth anticipating; otherwise, valuation and crowding digestion on the growth side will still take time."