In the nickel futures market, the lingering hawkish sentiment from the US Federal Reserve's June meeting has continued, supporting a rebound in the US dollar index and applying downward pressure. Overnight, LME nickel closed down 2.71%. The latest closing price for LME nickel was $17,230 per tonne, a decrease of $480, or 2.71%, with a trading volume of 10,994 lots. In the domestic market, the most actively traded Shanghai nickel futures contract closed at 131,230 yuan per tonne during the night session, down 2,970 yuan, or 2.21%.

LME nickel inventories reported on June 23 were 276,138 tonnes, a decrease of 54 tonnes from the previous day.

Today, Shanghai nickel futures opened lower across the board. The main July 2607 contract opened at 131,340 yuan per tonne, down 2,860 yuan from the previous close. As of 9:15 AM, the main July 2607 contract was quoted at 131,640 yuan per tonne, down 2,560 yuan. The Shanghai nickel market opened lower and continued to trend downwards, with the trading session maintaining a weak and volatile pattern. On the macroeconomic front, industrial metals on the LME faced broad selling pressure on June 23, with tin leading losses of over 4%, while nickel's decline continued to widen. Internationally, the easing of US-Iran tensions and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rapid unwinding of the supply risk premium that had previously supported metal prices. Persistent expectations of a hawkish Fed rate hike, coupled with stronger-than-expected economic data from the US and Europe showing a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, pushed the US dollar index to a multi-month high. This, combined with a sharp sell-off in global technology stocks, led to a decline in market risk appetite, cooling speculative fervor in computing power-related metals. Domestically, newly implemented policies aimed at stimulating consumption have yet to provide substantial support. Furthermore, the potential easing of nickel supply expectations from Indonesia, alongside year-end profit-taking by investors, created multiple bearish factors that collectively weighed on metal prices.

Current State of the Industry Chain: Structural Shortages Versus Long-Term Supply Expectations

The nickel industry chain currently exhibits a distinct layered structure. On the raw material side, shipments of laterite nickel ore from the Philippines continue to increase, primarily consisting of low-grade material, effectively supplementing mainstream supply from Indonesia. If Indonesia's adjustments to mining quotas are implemented, it could alleviate the long-term tight balance pressure on the ore supply side. For sulfide nickel ore, limited new global production capacity means long-term supply constraints remain prominent. In the intermediate products segment, the economic viability of producing pure nickel from high-grade matte has become apparent, and the pathway for converting nickel pig iron back to high-grade matte has been established. Currently, slight shortages exist for both nickel pig iron and high-grade matte in the mid-to-upper stream, with upstream suppliers showing a strong inclination to hold back supply to support prices. Following the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping efficiency has normalized, leading to an expected rapid decline in freight and insurance costs. This will significantly reduce landed costs for sulfur, further depressing the overall price level. Supply of recycled nickel remains generally stable, temporarily unable to fill the structural supply gap. Downstream demand from the new energy sector, particularly for ternary precursors, has stabilized year-on-year, providing a floor for raw material prices.

Market Outlook: Policy Variables to Drive Continued Weakness in Nickel Prices

For June 24th, the macroeconomic focus will be on statements from Federal Reserve officials and the trajectory of the US dollar index. Overseas liquidity sentiment is expected to remain the primary driver for the overall direction of the metals sector. Within the industry, the core focus remains the progress of revisions to Indonesia's quota policies, which represents the most significant variable and point of contention in the current market. LME nickel is anticipated to maintain a volatile but slightly firmer trend today, testing key previous support levels on the downside. Domestic nickel prices are expected to continue their weak correction, with a projected trading range of 131,000 to 132,000 yuan per tonne. In terms of strategy, caution is advised regarding potential sudden news-driven volatility. It is also recommended to monitor restocking patterns in downstream sectors like stainless steel and new energy batteries, while awaiting further clarity on supply and demand fundamentals.