During Monday's Asian trading session, spot gold was quoted at $4,376 per ounce, edging down a marginal 0.03% from Friday's close of $4,377.52. The metal briefly touched an intraday high of $4,383 before dipping to $4,358, with the daily trading range remaining under $25 and volume staying thin as prices consolidated within a tight band. The U.S. dollar index has stalled at the 100.24 level with momentum largely exhausted, leaving gold in a post-negative-news vacuum with no fresh catalysts on the horizon. When converted at current exchange rates, this translates to roughly 942 yuan per gram in Chinese currency terms.

After four consecutive weeks of decline, gold has not only recouped its losses but has also pushed the Wall Street bullish ratio to a perfect 100%. With the weekly candlestick turning positive again and the $4,400 threshold proving elusive, market sentiment is shifting rapidly. Whether gold can sustain its upward momentum this week has now become the focal point for both bulls and bears alike.

The latest weekly gold survey reveals that all participating analysts expect prices to rise this week, marking a full 100% bullish consensus. Retail investors are also leaning decisively toward the upside, with nearly 60% of online poll respondents expressing a bullish outlook while only about a quarter anticipate declines. This rare alignment between institutional and retail sentiment does not occur frequently.

What makes this consensus particularly noteworthy is that it has formed against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve having just completed its rate hike cycle, with the dot plot still signaling potential additional moves within the year. In other words, rate hikes themselves no longer constitute an overwhelming bearish factor—the market's sensitivity to interest rate news is clearly diminishing.

Falling oil prices have played a significant supporting role. The consecutive decline in crude has alleviated inflation expectations, thereby reducing the opportunity cost pressure on non-yielding assets—this was the most direct catalyst behind last week's rebound. Geopolitical tensions and election uncertainty have also contributed, as recurring instability in the Middle East, questions over the navigability of several strategic waterways, and overlapping election cycles across multiple nations continue to underpin gold's safe-haven appeal. Seasonal factors should not be overlooked either—entering late September, physical demand typically strengthens with holiday stocking, and when oil prices refrain from spiking higher, precious metals often exhibit more decisive trend movements.

However, it bears reminding that a unanimous bullish stance is itself a risk signal. When the market becomes nearly one-sided, any unexpected development—whether oil prices surging again, the dollar suddenly strengthening, long-end yields rising rapidly, or geopolitical tensions seeing substantive de-escalation—could trigger swift counter-movements. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials' commentary and upcoming economic data remain critical variables hanging over the market.

Several technical levels warrant close attention on the charts. The $4,300 area serves as the critical lifeline for the current rally—the fact that bears failed to push prices below this zone following the rate hike suggests selling pressure is showing signs of exhaustion, leaving the medium-term uptrend structure intact. On the upside, the $4,432–$4,445 zone represents the most immediate resistance that needs to be overcome; a high-volume breakout above this region could further strengthen bullish momentum. From a pattern perspective, the weekly chart has ended its losing streak with a bullish candle, with prices reversing from near the medium-term moving averages and lows steadily rising—a classic recovery structure. Institutional target ranges are generally pointing toward $4,500–$4,590, with stop-loss references commonly placed near $4,270. The significance of these levels lies less in precise forecasting and more in defining the market's widely recognized bull-bear demarcation line.