Key data points show that LME zinc spot premiums stand at $150.77 per tonne. According to SMM data, Shanghai zinc spot prices rose 455 yuan per tonne to 27,415 yuan per tonne, with a spot premium-discount of -105 yuan per tonne. Guangdong zinc spot prices climbed 455 yuan per tonne to 27,425 yuan per tonne with a discount of -95 yuan per tonne, while Tianjin zinc spot prices increased 460 yuan per tonne to 27,370 yuan per tonne, reflecting a discount of -150 yuan per tonne.

In the futures market, the main Shanghai zinc contract opened at 27,110 yuan per tonne on September 8, 2026, and settled at 27,505 yuan per tonne, up 510 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day. Total trading volume reached 173,671 lots with open interest of 160,294 lots. The intraday high touched 27,715 yuan per tonne, while the low dipped to 27,030 yuan per tonne.

On the inventory front, SMM data shows that zinc ingot inventories across seven major Chinese locations totaled 222,100 tonnes as of September 8, 2026, marking a decrease of 10,600 tonnes from the prior period. LME zinc inventories stood at 115,375 tonnes, up 2,275 tonnes from the previous trading day.

Where the market could head next

The hawkish stance from Fed officials combined with elevated oil prices has intensified concerns over a possible September rate hike. However, pressure from political figures for rate cuts and the approaching midterm elections keep the debate alive. Macro-driven trading is likely to remain volatile, with market participants closely watching upcoming economic data releases and the next Federal Reserve meeting.

Overseas zinc premiums remain stubbornly high, and the profitable export arbitrage window is stimulating continued inventory drawdowns in China. Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious about the risk of a sharp price correction once concentrated deliveries to LME warehouses cause premiums to retreat quickly.

Actual consumption should not be a major concern, as overseas demand remains robust while domestic demand could benefit from policy expectations. Support from the mining side remains strong, with the downtrend in ore supply unchanged. Furthermore, August smelting output fell short of expectations, and September production is anticipated to decline further, indicating that supply-side tensions are gradually shifting from mining to smelting operations.

Key risks to watch

Three primary risks stand out: unexpected disruptions in overseas mining supply, weaker-than-expected domestic consumption, and liquidity changes that exceed market expectations.