Informed sources have revealed that the U.S. Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated the likelihood of Iran responding by blocking the Strait of Hormuz while formulating military action plans against Iran. This strategic miscalculation has led to current turmoil in global energy markets, with oil prices remaining volatile at high levels and inflationary pressures rising sharply. During Asian trading hours on Friday, U.S. crude oil prices were fluctuating near $95.50 per barrel. Sources indicated that the Trump national security team failed to adequately incorporate "worst-case scenarios" into planning assessments, revealing systematic flaws in the decision-making process.
The Trump team failed to sufficiently assess the consequences of worst-case scenarios. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of the world's oil and significant LNG shipping volumes. A complete blockade would trigger the largest energy supply shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. According to sources, during the planning phase, the Trump team did not conduct adequate quantitative assessments of potential extreme retaliatory measures by Iran, including blockading the strait, laying mines, and proxy attacks on tankers, leading to the current passive situation. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly threatened to block the passage, with the risk of actual action being far higher than anticipated.
The voices of the U.S. Department of Energy and Treasury were marginalized, with economic forecasting taking a secondary position. Although officials from the Energy and Treasury departments participated in some operational planning meetings, the economic analysis and forecasting that typically play a crucial role in government decisions were relegated to a secondary position in this decision-making process. Sources pointed out that Trump prioritized military and security considerations over comprehensive economic impact assessments. This procedural issue has raised widespread concern about the U.S.'s strategic preparedness, especially against the backdrop of oil prices being significantly higher than pre-conflict levels and a sharp rise in global inflation risks.
Trump relied on a small circle of core advisors, with insufficient interagency discussion. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright played key roles in conflict planning and execution, Trump preferred to rely on a small group of core national security advisors for final decisions. This decision-making model somewhat weakened comprehensive interagency discussion of potential economic impacts. Sources disclosed that economic impact assessments were often marginalized in internal White House meetings, resulting in severe under-preparation for soaring oil prices, inflation transmission, and global supply chain disruptions.
Options like naval escorts carry high risks; measures to ease economic impact may take weeks to show effect. Current measures taken by the U.S. government to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict, including providing naval escorts for tankers, temporarily exempting some sanctions, and pushing for IEA stockpile releases, may take several weeks to show results. The Pentagon assesses that conducting large-scale escort operations in the current environment is too risky and could provoke larger-scale retaliation from Iran, further highlighting the U.S.'s passive position in dealing with a potential Hormuz blockade. Substantially restoring strait traffic is difficult in the short term, meaning high oil price volatility and inflationary pressures will continue to transmit to the global economy.
Passive strategic preparation exacerbates long-term economic risks. This incident exposes structural problems in the Trump administration's national security decision-making mechanism: military priority, insufficient economic assessment, and weak interagency coordination. A prolonged Hormuz blockade would trigger a global energy crisis, uncontrollable inflation, and supply chain disruptions, from which even the U.S., as a net energy exporter, would not be fully immune. Long-term economic risks include: reignited inflation, slowed growth, widening fiscal deficits, pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, and an increased probability of global stagflation. Investors need to be vigilant about systemic shocks caused by decision-making miscalculations and closely monitor Iran's responses, White House policy adjustments, and the progress of actual stockpile releases by the G7/IEA.
At 10:10 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil continuous contract was reported at $95.56 per barrel.