Abstract

ONEOK Inc will report its second-quarter 2026 results after the market closes (Post Market) on August 3, 2026; consensus points to higher revenue and earnings, with attention on seasonal throughput gains, export momentum and project updates that could shape management’s guidance trajectory for the remainder of 2026.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest consensus in the dataset, ONEOK Inc’s second-quarter 2026 revenue is estimated at 8.96 billion US dollars, up 16.49% year over year, with estimated EBIT of 1.61 billion US dollars (up 8.95% year over year) and estimated adjusted EPS of 1.48 (up 10.83% year over year); there is no consolidated forecast for gross or net profit margin in the dataset. Market attention is centered on the durability of seasonal uplift across operations and how management frames full-year run-rate performance relative to guidance. The most promising area highlighted in recent commentary is the liquids-focused platform tied to exports and Gulf Coast optionality; the liquids-related revenue line was 7.30 billion US dollars last quarter, while year-over-year detail by segment was not disclosed in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, ONEOK Inc delivered revenue of 9.62 billion US dollars (up 19.58% year over year), a gross profit margin of 26.67%, GAAP net income attributable to the company of 774.00 million US dollars with a net profit margin of 8.05%, and adjusted EPS of 1.32 (up 26.92% year over year). Revenue exceeded consensus by 1.38 billion US dollars and EPS was modestly above expectations, reinforcing the contribution from scaled operations and commercial execution. By line of business, liquids-related sales contributed 7.30 billion US dollars, residual natural gas sales 1.15 billion US dollars, transportation and storage 0.79 billion US dollars, gathering and processing and exchange services 0.34 billion US dollars, and other revenue 0.04 billion US dollars; the dataset does not include segment-level year-over-year figures, while the consolidated top line grew 19.58% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business drivers this quarter

The core revenue engine remains the liquids-linked sales line, which typically reflects the interplay of volumes, fees and marketing conditions across interconnected assets. For the second quarter of 2026, consensus anticipates a sequential normalization from the prior quarter’s unusually strong revenue print, yet still expects a double-digit year-over-year gain to 8.96 billion US dollars, pointing to resilient commercial activity. The margin lens for this quarter is mixed: while the previous quarter’s gross margin stood at 26.67% and net margin at 8.05%, the current dataset does not provide a forward margin forecast, which places more weight on management commentary regarding fee-based contributions versus commodity-sensitive components.

Operational color from recent sell-side previews suggests seasonal uplift across several units should support results. Commentary points to improving earnings from gathering and processing and refined products and crude operations, with natural gas pipeline results softer and liquids earnings slightly lower compared with the first quarter. This mix implies that despite potential headwinds in certain corridors, consolidated earnings should benefit from diversified contributions and the return of typical second-quarter seasonality. The market will parse management’s discussion for throughput trends, the cadence of contract renewals, and the degree to which fees and volumes offset variability in commodity-related spreads.

Consensus embeds an estimated EBIT of 1.61 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS of 1.48 for the quarter, each showing healthy year-over-year growth despite the absence of explicit margin forecasts. Investors will likely focus on the balance of fee-based revenue versus any commodity-exposed marketing uplift and whether the company can demonstrate operating leverage consistent with its recent revenue beat. Any update that adds transparency to second-half throughput rates, fractionation schedules and expected maintenance downtime will help refine run-rate assumptions into the back half of 2026.

Most promising segment and project catalysts

The company’s liquids platform tied to export logistics and Gulf Coast optionality remains a central medium-term value lever. Recent analyst commentary highlights steady customer interest in capacity at the planned Texas City export terminal and frames demand tailwinds from US natural gas liquids flows. While the terminal’s full commercial impact is a forward-looking driver rather than a second-quarter earnings contributor, any incremental disclosure on commercial commitments, contracting progress and project milestones could influence the stock’s reaction to the print.

Beyond exports, multiple analysts point to new commercial opportunities associated with power demand growth. Commentary references ongoing discussions with large technology companies about gas supply for AI-linked power projects that could total about 5 gigawatts of capacity, suggesting a multiyear load profile that, if contracted, would underpin volumes and enhance visibility. For the quarter at hand, the key is whether management can credibly connect these pipeline discussions to near-term volumes or earnings contribution, or whether benefits remain a 2027-and-beyond story; even in the latter case, incremental color on the pipeline of opportunities could sustain constructive sentiment.

Within the existing portfolio, the liquids-related revenue line was 7.30 billion US dollars last quarter, dominating the revenue mix and setting a high base from which to scale. Although the dataset lacks segment-level year-over-year growth figures, the combined revenue and EPS trajectories—up 16.49% and 10.83% year over year in the current-quarter estimates—imply that the platform continues to convert volume opportunities into earnings, even as certain pipeline corridors experience lower volumes. The street will view tangible progress on export optionality and commercial wins as confirmation that longer-term growth vectors can coexist with quarterly throughput variability.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Guidance framing and the tone around second-half 2026 will be a principal swing factor. Markets will look for management to either reaffirm or tighten its full-year guardrails after a first-half marked by revenue outperformance and seasonal variability. The magnitude of any commentary around operating cost control, efficiency gains and the mix of fee-based earnings versus potential marketing contributions will affect how investors model margins in the absence of a published consensus margin view.

Another swing factor is the pace of synergy realization and integration benefits from recent transactions referenced in management’s prior communications. While those actions principally shape medium-term EBITDA and leverage trajectories rather than a single quarter, investors often extrapolate quarter-to-quarter operating leverage to assess the durability of synergy capture. Clear evidence that capital projects remain on time and within planned spend ranges and that expansion projects are tracking to expected in-service dates would underpin earnings quality perceptions and influence post-print stock performance.

Lastly, balance sheet messaging and capital return cadence add to the near-term narrative. The board maintained the quarterly dividend at 1.07 US dollars per share for payment on August 14, 2026, which keeps the payout cadence intact into the print. With leverage and funding costs central to valuation in capital-intensive models, any update that points to a stable or improving net debt-to-EBITDA trajectory—together with progress on refinancing, laddering or opportunistic debt paydown—would support a constructive equity response. Conversely, if management signals an elongated timeline for converting emerging projects into contracted earnings, the stock could trade more on near-term throughput math than on the longer-term project pipeline.

Analyst Opinions

Across commentary since January 2026, the balance of explicitly directional views skews bullish. We tally at least six bullish items—two Buy ratings and four price-target increases or positive research notes—versus two bearish downgrades to Hold/sector-perform, with several additional neutral/Hold reiterations. On the bullish side, Wells Fargo’s Michael Blum reaffirmed a Buy and set a 126.00 US dollars price target, citing durable fundamentals and upside from growth projects. UBS’s Manav Gupta maintained a Buy with a 108.00 US dollars target and, in a July update, projected second-quarter EBITDA of about 2.06 billion US dollars versus 2.00 billion US dollars in the first quarter, driven by seasonal strength across most units, improved gathering and processing, and firmer refined products and crude, partially offset by softer gas pipeline results and marginally lower liquids earnings. Several large houses raised price targets into the mid-90s or higher—Bank of America to 96.00 US dollars and Citigroup to 97.00 US dollars—while Goldman Sachs inched its target to 89.00 US dollars, collectively pointing to confidence in execution and project visibility.

The bullish consensus is anchored in three pillars. First, earnings quality appears to be improving, with diversified contributions smoothing over corridor-specific volume softness. Even without explicit forward margin figures, the prior quarter’s outperformance—with revenue beating by 1.38 billion US dollars and EPS exceeding estimates—supports the view that commercial flexibility and fee-based elements are cushioning variability. Second, the pipeline of opportunities remains intact, including Gulf Coast export optionality at Texas City where analysts note strong customer interest, and incremental commercial prospects tied to anticipated AI power demand growth of roughly 5 gigawatts under discussion with technology customers. Investors see these as multi-year load drivers that could translate into contracted volumes and higher visibility in future periods, lending a positive skew to the medium-term multiple.

Third, the cadence of updates from major institutions implies that, while certain segments may experience quarterly variability, the aggregate system is performing within plan. UBS’s expectation of sequentially higher EBITDA this quarter, despite mixed conditions across corridors, illustrates this point and aligns with consensus forecasts for 8.96 billion US dollars in revenue and 1.48 in adjusted EPS, up 16.49% and 10.83% year over year, respectively. This framing suggests that even if the liquids marketing contribution is modestly softer quarter over quarter, improved gathering and processing and refined products and crude operations can offset, preserving consolidated momentum. Bulls also highlight that price-target raises from Bank of America and Citigroup reinforce a narrative of sustained growth underpinned by project execution and demand tailwinds.

Neutral and cautious voices—such as Jefferies’ downgrade to Hold and Scotiabank’s shift to sector-perform—reflect valuation sensitivity and acknowledgment of corridor-level volume risk, but they remain a minority among directional views in the period assessed. The bulk of institutions emphasize continuity with 2026 guidance and constructive second-half seasonality as the baseline into the print. From an expectations perspective, the stock reaction will likely hinge on whether management corroborates the sell-side’s view that quarterly earnings can improve sequentially on seasonal factors while backlog and export optionality keep medium-term growth credible.

In practical terms, the majority bullish stance translates into a focus on confirmation rather than surprise. Investors following the bullish case will look for: validation that revenue lands near the 8.96 billion US dollars mark with EPS close to 1.48; commentary that natural gas pipeline softness is manageable in the context of broader system throughput; and incremental detail on export terminal contracting and the AI-related power demand opportunity set. Should these elements align with the street’s framework, bulls argue the shares can sustain a valuation consistent with raised targets in the mid-90s to low-100s, with upside predicated on visible execution increments. While neutral views may temper expectations for outsized multiple expansion without near-term project conversion, the prevailing analyst narrative into August 3, 2026 remains that operational momentum and a robust project slate offer a favorable balance of outcomes for the upcoming quarter.