A liquefied natural gas transport vessel carrying a full cargo from Qatar was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying already heightened tensions in the Middle East and adding fresh pressure on the global energy market. The affected vessel has been identified as the Gaslog Shanghai, an LNG carrier. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that the ship was hit by an unidentified projectile approximately 11 nautical miles northeast of Oman, resulting in damage to the engine room and a loss of control. No casualties or environmental pollution have been reported. Citing unnamed US officials, reports indicate that the former president has ordered the military to prepare for a new round of strikes against Iran, potentially starting as early as this weekend. On Wednesday, Eastern Time, during an interview, the former US president stated that the US would retaliate following missile attacks by Iran on American forces. He asserted that the US would deliver a "heavy blow" to Iran, which would face a "severe beating."

Iran has issued a stern warning in response. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, stated that continued US maritime blockades would lead Iran to tighten its control over the Strait of Hormuz and potentially close other key maritime chokepoints. "This cost will be borne by the global economy, energy markets, and American voters," he said.

According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and Kpler, the Gaslog Shanghai loaded its cargo in Qatar around July 27 and stopped transmitting signals near the western entrance of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31. Security advisors Vanguard Tech and Marisks have confirmed the vessel's identity. Gaslog, a Greece-based ship management company, did not respond to requests for comment outside of normal business hours. In a separate advisory on Saturday, the UKMTO disclosed that another tanker in the waters near Oman reported seeing a large splash and an explosion in its vicinity. The UKMTO stated that the relevant information has been passed to local coast guard authorities. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled more than 3% higher at $86 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude also rose over 1% to close at $90.12 per barrel. However, both benchmarks are still down more than 5% for the week.

The ceasefire agreement has collapsed, and the scale of the conflict continues to expand. Citing unnamed US officials, reports suggest the former president is seriously considering striking Iranian energy targets in the coming days, though no final order has been given. Reports indicate that if diplomatic negotiations show progress, the planned strikes could still be called off. Iran is retaliating in kind. Zolghadr warned that the US "maritime blockade and warmongering" will not only tighten control over the Strait of Hormuz but also lead to the closure of other straits and chokepoints. The US reimposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ships on July 13, barring them from entering its ports. Over the past week, the US has completed a "massive" strike on multiple targets of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In retaliation, Iran attacked US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait stated that its air defense systems intercepted a drone attack launched by Iran.

Signs of the conflict's spread are also alarming the market. Egypt reported on Thursday that a drone struck two ships at its Mediterranean port of Damietta, causing a fire, with no claim of responsibility. This marks the first attack on Egyptian territory since the start of the current conflict, raising concerns that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea could become a second target for Iran.