Citi's team recently conducted a survey on China's humanoid robotics industry chain, covering five core enterprises. The findings reveal a clear consensus: global humanoid robot production is expected to enter a phase of exponential growth by 2026, with output at least doubling compared to 2025.

According to the latest research report from Citi, as global leading manufacturers and domestic firms accelerate production expansion, global humanoid robot capacity is projected to surge in 2026. Revenue for Chinese supply chain companies is anticipated to more than double. The report suggests that the current sector-wide stock price correction presents an excellent investment opportunity for investors.

Citi's analysis highlights that the core growth driver stems from surging demand for upstream components due to expanded production capacity, particularly in critical areas such as 3D vision, reducers, and lead screws. From manufacturing to upstream supply, every segment of the industry chain demonstrates a clear growth trajectory, making humanoid robotics one of the most promising investment sectors in technology today.

**2026: The Tipping Point for Growth** Citi's survey covered key segments from 3D vision to core components, with respondents expressing widespread optimism. By 2026, revenue from humanoid robotics-related businesses is expected to grow exponentially, at least doubling.

This consensus reflects the accelerating pace of the global humanoid robotics industry. Leading global manufacturers are actively building supply chains and significantly raising production targets, while domestic firms are steadily advancing commercialization, with orders in the thousands already materializing. The dual push from domestic and international capacity is driving upstream component demand toward a tipping point.

For investors, this signals the industry's transition from technological validation to mass production, with the countdown to industrial scaling underway. As production capacity gradually ramps up, each segment of the supply chain will enter a phase of earnings realization.

**Clear Growth Paths and Value Propositions** Citi's report notes that China's humanoid robotics supply chain has matured, with 2026 set to bring comprehensive scaling from core components to full assembly and revenue surges.

In 3D vision, Chinese firms have made significant breakthroughs, with core products entering recommended lists of global leaders and capturing ~70% market share in niche segments. Each humanoid robot requires four 3D vision solutions, contributing to a per-unit value of RMB 8,000. By 2026, related company revenues are expected to exceed RMB 100–200 million.

For core execution system components like reducers and lead screws, leading firms have already approached RMB 100 million in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 20% of total revenue. These firms have successfully entered the supply chains of global mainstream manufacturers. Each robot requires 30–40 lead screws, driving a per-unit value of up to RMB 20,000.

Assembly manufacturing is also progressing rapidly. Leading domestic firms have secured cumulative orders worth RMB 800 million in 2025, with 2026 shipments expected to jump from 500 units to 2,000 units. Related revenue could surpass 30% of total income, marking a critical phase in mass production.

**Supply Chain Demand Surge** The report states that the global humanoid robotics industry is forming a "global leadership + domestic acceleration" dynamic, propelling the entire supply chain into a demand boom.

Global leaders are rapidly building supply chains and raising production targets, prompting suppliers of micro ball screws, harmonic reducers, and other core components to urgently expand capacity. Some firms must increase weekly capacity to 3,000 units by Q1 2026, further scaling to 5,000 units by year-end.

Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers have secured orders in the thousands, with 2026 expected to mark full-scale mass production ramp-up. This will drive synchronized demand spikes for 3D vision, motors, linear actuators, and other critical components. The dual expansion from domestic and international players is pushing upstream suppliers into a "orders + capacity" growth cycle, positioning them as primary beneficiaries of this industrial wave.

**Investment Opportunity Amid Correction** Citi's report emphasizes that the current stock price correction offers a strategic entry point for investors.

From an investment perspective, assembly firms' competitive edge lies in commercialization progress and order acquisition, while upstream component suppliers benefit from "high per-unit value + inelastic demand," delivering stronger profit elasticity. Companies already integrated into global leaders' supply chains exhibit particularly robust growth certainty.

Long-term prospects remain vast. Over the next decade, the global humanoid robotics market is projected to exceed $100 billion. China's supply chain, backed by technological expertise in core components and cost efficiency, will continue to play a pivotal role, offering investors sustained and reliable long-term value.