As year-end approaches, IPO candidates that have submitted applications to Hong Kong Exchanges but remain unlisted face increasing odds of failure. Mabgeek Biotech is among them. The company filed its listing application on July 14 this year but has yet to proceed to hearings.

Since its 2016 founding, Mabgeek has developed a pipeline of eight innovative drug candidates. Its flagship product, MG-K10—a long-acting anti-IL-4Rα antibody—received marketing application acceptance from China's NMPA on October 30. Despite this progress, the company candidly warns in its prospectus: "We may ultimately fail to successfully develop and commercialize MG-K10."

Notably, Mabgeek's IL-4Rα-related patents have been entangled in litigation with Shanghai Sansheng Guojian Pharmaceutical. Last month, Sansheng Guojian filed another invalidation request against one of Mabgeek's core patents, casting uncertainty over MG-K10's approval timeline.

Adding pressure is a ticking IPO deadline. Originally set for December 31, 2025, the backstop date was extended to December 31, 2026 upon Mabgeek's HKEX filing. If listing isn't achieved by then, repurchase rights for investors reactivate on January 1, 2027.

Mabgeek targets the allergy/autoimmune space, with MG-K10 positioned as a differentiated "long-acting" therapy for atopic dermatitis and asthma. While partner CMS Pharma secured exclusive commercialization rights in a deal worth hundreds of millions, competition is fierce. Globally, Sanofi's Dupixent dominates with $14.2B in 2024 sales. Domestically, CMAB007 (Spartalizumab) and multiple Phase III candidates from competitors like Simcere and Hengrui will flood the market by 2026-2027.

More critically, intellectual property risks loom. Founder Zhang Chenghai and key R&D leads previously worked at Sansheng Guojian, where they developed foundational antibody platforms. Sansheng has twice challenged Mabgeek's patents—successfully claiming ownership of one in 2020 and now contesting another critical to MG-K10. The prospectus omits specific disclosure of these disputes despite extensive generic IP risk warnings.

Financially, Mabgeek operates at a loss with zero product revenue. Cumulative deficits exceed 808M yuan ($113M), while R&D burns over 150M yuan annually. Though a 260M yuan Pre-IPO round in May 2025 temporarily boosted cash reserves to 70.8M yuan, completing MG-K10's global Phase III trials may require 500-600M yuan more.

Investor exits signal caution: early backer Hua Capital cashed out at 4x returns in 2023, while others reduced stakes before the listing attempt. With 100%+ debt-to-equity ratios since 2023 and patent clouds overhead, Mabgeek's 2.64B yuan valuation faces stern tests in its race against the IPO clock.