**Core View**: The nickel market remains range-bound as high nickel ore prices persist amid supply constraints from the Philippines' rainy season. While pure nickel fundamentals stay weak, macro sentiment may provide short-term support, keeping prices volatile.
### **Market Highlights** - **Nickel Ore Prices (Bullish)**: As of Oct 27, Philippine laterite nickel ore (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) rose by $1/wmt to $30, $58, and $79.5/wmt, respectively. - **Indonesian Domestic Nickel Ore (Neutral)**: Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% prices held steady at $23 and $52.8/wmt. - **Freight Rates (Neutral)**: Philippines-Tianjin/Philippines-Lianyungang rates unchanged at $12.5 and $11.5/wmt. - **Refined Nickel Output (Bearish)**: China’s Sept electrolytic nickel output rose 1.14% MoM to 35.6k tons (+13.07% YoY). - **NPI Prices (Bearish)**: 8-12% high-grade NPI fell ¥9/nickel point to ¥928.5/nickel point (-0.96% WoW). - **Stainless Steel Inventory (Bullish)**: Social stocks dropped 1.33% WoW to 1.0274M tons.
### **Supply-Demand Dynamics** - **Nickel Ore**: Philippine shipments face disruptions due to heavy rains (Tawi/Surigao: 50mm+ rainfall). Indonesia’s mining activity rebounds post-monsoon. - **Refined Nickel**: Rising Chinese production (+1.14% MoM) and accelerating stockpiles (+2.29% WoW to 48.8k tons) pressure prices. - **NPI**: Weak demand and squeezed margins (-7.42% cash cost profitability) curb output (-9.3% MoM). - **Stainless Steel**: Oct production edged up 0.6% MoM to 3.4472M tons, but weak demand and cost declines (-¥78/t WoW) limit upside.
### **Industry Updates** - **Xiamen Tungsten-GEM Agreement**: GEM to supply 450k tons of battery materials (including nickel sulfate) from 2026-2028. - **LME Listing**: Indonesia’s PT Eternal Nickel applies for "PTENICO" brand listing (50k-ton annual cathode capacity). - **APNI Benchmark Price**: Indonesia’s Oct nickel ore reference price rose 0.27% to $15,142/ton. - **WBMS Data**: Global refined nickel surplus hit 30.51k tons Jan-Aug 2025.
### **Price Movements** - **Futures**: SHFE nickel (Dec ‘25) gained 0.68% WoW to ¥122,150/ton; stainless steel (SS2512) rose 1.43% to ¥12,810/ton. - **Spot Nickel**: +¥950/ton WoW to ¥123,050/ton. - **NPI-Spread**: Discount to electrolytic nickel widened to -¥290/nickel point.
### **Outlook** Nickel ore supply tightness and macro factors may sustain volatility, while stainless steel struggles with tepid demand and inventory overhang.
*Data Sources: SMM, Mysteel, WBMS, LME*