Property Market Shows Strengthening Stability as Spring Sales Shine

Deep News
04/24

Recent performance in the property market during the spring season has been notable, with positive signals emerging. In terms of housing prices, both new and pre-owned homes in first-tier cities have seen month-on-month rebounds. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in March, new commercial residential sales prices in first-tier cities shifted from being flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%. Pre-owned home sales prices rose by 0.4%, compared to a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Specifically, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw increases of 0.6%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4%, respectively. Moreover, in 70 large and medium-sized cities, price declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained flat month-on-month. The number of cities experiencing month-on-month increases in both new and pre-owned home prices grew compared to the previous month, indicating a broader recovery in the market. Transaction volumes also show marginal improvement. In March, nearly 20,000 pre-owned homes were sold in Beijing, marking the highest level in 15 months. Shanghai recorded over 31,000 pre-owned home transactions, the highest in nearly five years. Since April, the recovery in key cities has continued. From January to March, the total sales area of new commercial properties nationwide reached 19.525 million square meters, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 3.1 percentage points compared to the January–February period. Inventory levels also indicate initial success in destocking. According to Yu Xiaofen, Dean of the China Housing and Real Estate Research Institute at Zhejiang University of Technology, as of the end of March, the area of unsold commercial properties nationwide declined year-on-year for the first time in 52 months. The unsold area of new commercial homes under three years old decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, suggesting that accumulated inventory since 2022 is gradually being absorbed. These indicators collectively demonstrate that the momentum for recovery in the property market is building, market expectations are improving, and stability is strengthening. This round of market recovery is not coincidental. First, the period after the Spring Festival typically sees a seasonal peak in transactions, driven by pent-up demand. Second, policy measures have boosted market confidence. Since the end of last year, local governments have introduced a series of policies to stabilize the property market, including adjustments to purchase restrictions, optimized credit policies, and increased provident fund support, which have lowered barriers and costs for reasonable home purchases and stimulated both rigid and upgraders' demand. On the supply side, efforts have focused on controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving quality, such as optimizing land supply structures and promoting the construction of "better homes." Data from the China Index Academy shows that in the first quarter of this year, over 100 cities and counties nationwide introduced approximately 160 property-related policies. The increased precision and intensity of these policies have played a crucial role in restoring market confidence. While signs of stabilization are emerging, the foundation remains fragile, and market differentiation remains a prominent feature. For instance, key cities like Beijing and Shanghai are recovering, but many third- and fourth-tier cities still face pressure. Even in well-performing key cities, disparities exist between pre-owned and new homes, urban and suburban areas, and different projects, reflecting the complexity and diversity of the market. Looking ahead, data from KE Holdings indicates that forward-looking indicators show active property viewings and higher new client numbers in Beijing and Shanghai compared to the same period last year. The efficiency of converting viewings to transactions remains normal, with viewings in Shanghai increasing by nearly 30% in March compared to January, providing strong support for future transactions. As the property replacement chain gradually activates, market liquidity is expected to improve further. The property market is highly interconnected and widely impactful, making it a topic of significant public concern. In the medium to long term, patience is warranted. With efforts on both supply and demand sides, steady progress in constructing "better homes," and a smooth transition between old and new models, high-quality development in the property market remains a promising prospect.

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