Dissecting the Market: Before the holiday, various funds are engaging in all sorts of maneuvering. A-shares fell heavily over the past two days but finally rebounded today, while Hong Kong stocks continued to trade in a range, closing down 0.48%. Hong Kong stocks are aligning with US stocks, and currently the US 10-year Treasury yield can no longer be contained, breaking through both the 5% and 5.1% integer levels in a single day and surging all the way to nearly challenging the 5.3% mark. The 20-year yield reached 5.6%, and the 30-year yield also hit 5.55%. These are all quite dangerous signals. The US and Iran continue negotiations, with officials from both countries stating that US and Iranian officials held separate talks with mediators on Monday, renewing efforts to end the seven-month war. But before any results are achieved, market movements will remain rather tangled.

Given this situation, domestic policy is also seeking reform. On September 28, the State Council held an executive meeting to study work related to strengthening the effectiveness of macro policy and promoting effective investment. Regarding problems emerging in current economic operations, the meeting pointed out that counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policy must be intensified, economic development must be promoted to continue moving toward new and better directions, and efforts must be made to complete the annual economic and social development targets. The meeting made clear that a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies would be introduced, and policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth would be studied and rolled out. This means the probability of a new round of home market stabilization policies landing is very high. The nationwide home purchase interest subsidy policy that the market has been closely watching finally arrived after market close today: the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice that starting from October 1, China will implement interest subsidies for residents using newly issued commercial personal housing loans to purchase homes. The loan scale eligible for subsidies can reach up to 1 million yuan, with fiscal authorities providing an annualized 1 percentage point subsidy. Based on current commercial personal housing loan rates for first homes, this is equivalent to a one-third discount on the interest rate, with a maximum subsidy period of 5 years. According to estimates, for a long-term 1 million yuan commercial personal housing loan, the policy can help borrowers reduce cumulative interest payments by nearly 50,000 yuan.

Property stocks strengthened collectively. Ronshine China (03301) surged nearly 18%, while Greenland Hong Kong (00337), Zhenro Properties (06158), China Vanke (02202), and Times China Holdings (01233) all rose more than 10%; Greentown China (03900), Sunac China (01918), and China Jinmao (00817) all gained around 8%. Many of these were names mentioned yesterday.

The pressure is now on US stocks. The biggest problem for US stocks currently is the technology sector. If tech falls, US stocks will struggle. Next, Trump will meet with tech giants to discuss AI development. This will most likely provide another stimulus. And giant Nvidia is also launching a self-rescue: Nvidia will increase its stock buyback authorization by 150 billion USD, bringing the total repurchase program to 235 billion USD. The company expects to execute this buyback plan before fiscal year 2028. Buybacks are the most common way to support share prices. Rough statistics show that Apple's cumulative buyback amount over the past decade exceeded 841 billion USD, all used for cancellation. The logic is simple and brutal: buybacks and cancellations reduce share capital, increasing the net profit and cash flow corresponding to each share, allowing long-term shareholders to enjoy compounding. This is the difference. Many of our companies, when they make money, engage in all kinds of capacity expansion, or even keep financing or reduce holdings at high prices. How aggressive is Nvidia's buyback? Some have calculated that over the past five years, the actual completed buyback amounts of A-share listed companies were approximately: 120.7 billion yuan in 2021, 101.9 billion yuan in 2022, 91 billion yuan in 2023, 165.9 billion yuan in 2024, and 142.7 billion yuan in 2025. The buyback quota of Nvidia alone is about 1.6 times the total buyback amount of all 5,000 A-share listed companies over the past five years, and more than 6 times A-shares' record buyback year of 2024.

Stimulated by Nvidia, and with funds also betting that Trump will strongly support AI, the technology sector also rebounded today. The strongest direction was still PCB. As upstream raw material prices continue to rise, PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturers have successively initiated re-quoting. Industry giants all have positive developments: Victory Giant Technology's Thailand Phase II began producing AI verification boards, Shennan Circuits raised 4.882 billion yuan for investment in Wuxi, Pengding Holdings broke ground on 10 billion yuan for Shenzhen's third park, and Kingwong Electronics' Zhuhai Jinwan high-end HDI factory went into production in September. Kingwong Electronics (03228) made its Hong Kong debut today, opening below its issue price but quickly rebounding under the lead of A-share stabilization. The company is the world's largest automotive electronics PCB supplier with a 10.6% market share, and ranks eleventh among global PCB suppliers with a 2.5% market share. Eight of the world's top ten Tier 1 automotive suppliers are the company's customers, and the company's PCB products have been widely applied in the automotive products of the world's top ten automotive groups. On September 28, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice on adjustments to Southbound Stock Connect targets under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Kingwong Electronics (03228) was included, effective from the next Southbound trading day. With the support of southbound funds, the stock closed up more than 10%. Guanghe Technology (01989) rose more than 9%, while Kingboard Holdings (00148) and Dingtai Gaoke (01377) rose more than 4%. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869), Biren Technology (06082), Changguang Chencore (03277), and Aixin Yuanzhi (00600), which fell passively yesterday, all rebounded more than 6%.

Innovative drugs welcomed another catalyst: On September 29, AstraZeneca announced a 2 billion USD equity investment in US pharmaceutical company Summit, buying the overseas sales rights to Akeso's (Akeso Biopharma (09926)) cancer drug ivonescimab. Ivonescimab is a globally first-in-class PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody independently developed by Akeso, the world's first approved dual-antibody new drug with a synergistic "tumor immunity + anti-angiogenesis" mechanism, and the world's first drug to achieve positive results against "drug king" pembrolizumab in a Phase III study. Ivonescimab's US marketing application was accepted by the FDA in January 2026, with a PDUFA date of November 14. Today it surged more than 15%. At midday today, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (01276) announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk A/S for HRS-1596. Novo Nordisk will pay 300 million USD upfront with a potential total value of up to 2.6 billion USD to acquire the rights outside Greater China for a Hengrui (01276) oral GLP-1/GIP dual-target agonist. The agreement still needs to pass review under the US Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, and the transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026. This stimulated related innovative drug stocks such as Keymed Biosciences-B (02162), Lepu Biopharma (02157), and CStone Pharmaceuticals-B (02616) to rise more than 8%.

The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" jointly formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments was officially released on September 28. The plan proposes that by 2030, China's new battery industry scale will achieve steady growth; all-solid-state batteries will initially achieve large-scale application; long-life lithium batteries will reach a cycle life of 15,000 cycles; and leading enterprises' product defect rates will reach PPB (parts per billion) levels. A small-scale introduction window for all-solid-state battery passenger vehicles is expected between 2027 and 2028. In addition to the automotive sector, emerging scenarios such as humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft have also become important testing grounds for solid-state batteries. Large-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries cannot be achieved without coordinated efforts in materials, equipment, and processes. Among these, specialized equipment such as warm isostatic pressing is regarded as a key lever for solving the solid-solid interface contact challenge. Equipment makers such as Lead Intelligent (00470) have already achieved shipments of warm isostatic pressing equipment, rising more than 7%.

Sector Focus

The People's Bank of China decided to further adjust and improve several monetary policy tools: First, lower the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) rate by 0.25 percentage points. The one-year PSL rate will be reduced from 1.75% to 1.5%, better incentivizing policy banks to support the real economy and serve national strategies. Second, expand the supported areas of PSL. Water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks — the construction of these "six networks" — will be included in PSL-supported areas, guiding policy banks to increase financial support for the construction of the "six networks," helping expand effective investment and deeply tap domestic demand potential. Third, increase the quota for relending for technological innovation and technological upgrading by 200 billion yuan, and uniformly raise the support ratio for this relending from 60% to 100%. After the increase, the relending quota for technological innovation and technological upgrading will rise from 1.2 trillion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan, with a higher support ratio, helping guide banks to increase lending to small and medium-sized technology enterprises and better support enterprises in expanding equipment renewal investment in key areas. Fourth, increase the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, of which the relending quota for private enterprises will increase by 300 billion yuan. The core here is the second item. The inclusion of the "six networks" in PSL-supported areas mainly involves: China Lesso (02128), Wasion Holdings (03393), China Communications Service (00552), China Energy Engineering (03996), Guangdong Investment (00270), JD Logistics (02618), and Yuegang'ao Intelligent Computing (01396).

Individual Stock Spotlight

Dajin Heavy Industry (01081): European order proportion continues to rise, first-half net profit hits a new high for the same period. Recently, KING THREE, the third large deck transport vessel in the KING series independently designed and fully built by Dajin Heavy Industry, was officially delivered at the company's Panjin base. Recently, the company formally signed a design contract with well-known Norwegian ship design company Ulstein for a new-generation ULSTEIN HX122 with U-STERN offshore foundation installation vessel. In the first half of 2026, revenue was 3.253 billion yuan, up 14.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 601 million yuan, up 9.89% year-on-year, the best first-half profit in history; excluding exchange rate disturbances, net profit rose more than 50% year-on-year. Comment: Dajin Heavy Industry's KING series owned ocean transport fleet has been fully completed. The company is a leading European export player among domestic offshore wind manufacturers. Concentrated deliveries of European offshore wind brought a surge in performance, with first-half net profit hitting a new high for the same period and gross margin rising sharply. Wind power equipment gross margin was 35.90%, up 10.37 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the continued increase in the proportion of high-margin European orders, with overall gross margin at 37.53%. Cash flow improved significantly, with net operating cash flow of 1.533 billion yuan, up 544.06% year-on-year. Core highlights: 1) Overseas order gross margin is far higher than domestic tower peers. 2) Full-chain closed loop (manufacturing + owned transport vessels + European mother ports), controllable costs, and strong delivery competitiveness. 3) The second growth curve of shipbuilding has landed, with tens of billions in ship orders locking in revenue for the coming years and opening a new track. 4) Cash flow has recovered notably, and the share of high-margin overseas business continues to rise. The company has a full order book. Offshore wind equipment orders: overseas offshore wind orders are concentrated in Europe (UK, Germany, France), large long-cycle orders, with deliveries mainly concentrated in 2026–2027. Institutions estimate offshore wind deliveries of about 250,000 tons in 2026. Shipbuilding orders are the company's second growth curve, with cumulative ship orders of 24 vessels totaling about 12 billion yuan, with delivery scheduled for 2027–2030 vessel types, plus 3+1 bulk carriers with a Greek shipowner totaling 2.1 billion yuan; and 4 bulk carriers with a Norwegian shipowner worth about 2 billion yuan. The shipbuilding order volume is very large, but the delivery cycle is long, and performance will be gradually realized after 2027. The company builds its own KING/Emperor series large-component transport vessels, no longer chartering ships at high prices, controlling ocean transport costs and ensuring delivery timeliness. It has laid out four European mother ports in Germany, Spain, and Denmark, covering the North Sea and Baltic Sea, with overseas terminal assembly, warehousing, and operation and maintenance, providing one-stop delivery solutions for overseas customers. The company's European offshore wind order gross margin is significantly higher than domestic projects, with overseas revenue accounting for 82.25%. The company benefits from the major trend of deep-sea offshore wind in Europe; it has simultaneously entered high-value-added vessel types such as special ships, not limited to ordinary bulk carriers. The shipbuilding segment has entered international leading shipowners, opening a second growth curve.